The Last of the Universe’s Ordinary Matter Has Been Found

160 points by amaks 6 years ago | 61 comments
  • gcbw2 6 years ago
    The hypothesis is they should see CMB distortion between galaxies, which is hidden by the distortion caused by the galaxies themselves. The solution was to assume they were removing the distortion caused by the galaxy halo, and what was left was the original distortion they were looking for.

    sounds like the work to rule out false-positives would be huge. This is putting a lot of weight on a technique that is not fully described in the paper (i might have missed, just glanced at them for now, and i am an amateur that just like to fiddle with similar data).

    • simsla 6 years ago
      You're right about the first two papers (which used the same approach). Ruling out a FP result would be difficult, which is why it wasn't fully embraced by the scientific community.

      The third team took a different approach [1], with results that are both more accurate, less prone to FP, and generally agree with the other findings.

      > Here we report observations of two absorbers of highly ionized oxygen (O VII) in the high-signal-to-noise-ratio X-ray spectrum of a quasar at a redshift higher than 0.4. These absorbers show no variability over a two-year timescale and have no associated cold absorption, making the assumption that they originate from the quasar’s intrinsic outflow or the host galaxy’s interstellar medium implausible.

      [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0204-1

      • nfc 6 years ago
        I'm not really sure of what you mean by false positives.

        After my understanding of the stacking technique as used in other contexts in astrophysics and without going into too much details :

        The problem they were facing is that the signal to noise of the images of the filaments was too low to say that they had detected anything in any individual images. However by stacking (adding) images they were able to detect it because the signal grows roughly with N (N being the number of images) and the noise grows with sqrt(N). So by stacking enough images you'll get the signal to noise necessary to say you've detected sth.

        • gcbw2 6 years ago
          Think like that: there are two bright lights in front of you. There will always be a halo between those two bright lights.

          Now, my hypothesis is that "between all two bright lights, there is third, dimmer one, hidding". And then i prove it by filtering X from the two bright light halo, and prove that Y is left proving that the third light is there.

          Now, how can i be sure Y is really a third dimmer light? and not just noise on the function i used to try to clean up the halo of the two bright light?

          • nfc 6 years ago
            You are right that this could be the case, and it's mentioned in at least one of the papers [1] where they say that a better understanding of the physical state of this gas is needed to estimate its contributions to the baryonic mass.

            [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04555

            Now we can get to discuss the third paper ;)

            • 6 years ago
            • eridius 6 years ago
              I was wondering why stacking N different galaxies was any different than just taking one image and multiplying it by N, but your comment just provided the answer: noise.
            • macintux 6 years ago
              There's more confidence in the result because two teams using very different methods have arrived at the same conclusion.
              • gcbw2 6 years ago
                The three papers used the same 'filtering' methodology, to keep the simplification analogy.
            • TomMckenny 6 years ago
              Slightly related, I wonder if anyone has figured out the density of interstellar comet or asteroid like objects.

              I notice that Oumuamua happened to pass within some 20 million km of earth within a decade or so of having systems in place to spot it. Wouldn't this imply there are an awful lot of them?

              • wahern 6 years ago
                I've wondered the same thing. Also consider that

                  [t]he energy released by a cosmic collision increases as the 
                  square of the incoming object's speed, so a comet could pack
                  nine times more destructive power than an asteroid of the
                  same mass. (https://www.space.com/26264-asteroids-comets-earth-impact-risks.html)
                
                ʻOumuamua reached a barycentric speed of 87.71 km/s. The tables on Wikipedia's Impact event article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event) assume a speed of 17 km/s relative to Earth. The energy of objects local to our solar system is limited in a way that interstellar objects are not.

                With a single observation we can't deduce much of anything concrete except to floor the incidence of these interstellar objects at greater than 0. I'm no astronomer, but I assume models of interstellar objects as they reflect actual risk to Earth wouldn't be very useful without more observations. Whatever the average density in galactic space, I'm betting they're not uniformly distributed. Our solar system is speeding through space that could be littered with clouds of objects.[1] Are we entering a cloud? Leaving a cloud? We can't know without more observations.

                [1] There are theories that posit that the ~30- and ~225-million year cycles we see in extinction events are a function of our solar system's orbit in the galaxy, which takes about 200-250 million years. Shorter cycles could relate to the inclination of our orbit (and other stars' orbits) relative to the galactic plane.

                • ChuckMcM 6 years ago
                  One of the interesting things about the galactic orbit is that our system is not exactly in the galactic plane, so as it orbits it passes through the plane to the other side and then back again.

                  The kinetic energy of objects is proportional to the square of the velocity (Ke = (mv^2)/2), so an object going 4 times faster than a solar system object has 16 times the energy for the same mass. This makes it possible to have extinction level events from rocks that are 1/4 the size of planet killing asteroids.

                • mhandley 6 years ago
                  Ok, here's an extremely rough back-of-the-envelope calculation. As you'll see, these numbers can be out by orders of magnitude, and it doesn't greatly change the conclusion.

                  Oumuamua interstellar asteroid. 230x35x35m, ~= 280000 m^3

                  Density assumption: 2 x water. => mass is ~500,000 metric tonnes.

                  Spotted only after passing the Sun. Assume we'd spot such objects only if they came within the orbit of mercury so are well illuminated. Assume one such object every 10 years (we've not been searching very long with automated telescopes), and we spot all of them.

                  Mean mercury orbit radius ~ 60,000,000 km

                  Area of mercury's orbit: 1.1 x 10^16 km^2

                  Mercury's orbital area x path length in 10 years = volume swept by one visible object in 10 years.

                  Asteroid velocity ~100,000 km/h

                  Path length in 10 years = 100,000 x 10 x 24x365. Swept volume ~ 10 x 10^25 km^3

                  Distance to Alpha Centauri: 4.37 light years = 4.37 x 9.5 x 10^12 km = 4.15 x 10^13km

                  Sol's "cube of influence" ~= 7 x 10^40 km^3

                  Cube of influence / swept volume = rough estimate of number of asteroids in cube of influence. Number of asteroids: 7 x 10^14

                  Mass of asteroids: 3.5 x 10^20 tonnes. Mass of sun: 2 x 10^27 tonnes.

                  Conclusion: dark interstellar asteroids like Oumuamua are a tiny fraction of the visible mass of the galaxy.

                  • coldtea 6 years ago
                    >I notice that Oumuamua happened to pass within some 20 million km of earth within a decade or so of having systems in place to spot it. Wouldn't this imply there are an awful lot of them?

                    Finding one in a decade's span within 20 million km would imply there are "an awful lot of them"?

                    • Baeocystin 6 years ago
                      Practically instantaneous on the lengthy time scales the universe operates in, don't you think? And our observations have far from complete coverage of the sky.
                      • azernik 6 years ago
                        That's a pretty small volume and a pretty short timespan, all things considered.
                      • Firerouge 6 years ago
                        I'm not qualified to answer your question, but the observation of Oumuamua alone doesn't give a large enough sample size to estimate how often large interstellar comets or asteroids pass through our solar system.
                        • privong 6 years ago
                          > I'm not qualified to answer your question, but the observation of Oumuamua alone doesn't give a large enough sample size to estimate how often large interstellar comets or asteroids pass through our solar system.

                          It's an observation, so it sets some level of constraints on the rate. Though it's true that an estimate of that rate would have large uncertainties.

                      • gmailsyncer 6 years ago
                        There must be regions of the universe where this "not very dense" gas is dense enough to use a ramscoop
                        • zaarn 6 years ago
                          Likely only around jupiter-like planets, if any large region of gas was that dense it would quickly collapse into either a gas giant or star or even multiple stars.
                          • stephengillie 6 years ago
                            Probably more in high-gravity locations, such as planets and stars. Thinking about the Juno satellite orbit, would it be better/easier/cheaper to hang a mining station in orbit around Jupiter, or have a satellite/ship dip into Jupiter's atmosphere every orbit?
                            • sandworm101 6 years ago
                              Counterintuitively, the energy costs are basically the same. Whether you dive in to pick it up, or run into it out in space, you will still have to accelerate the gas to orbital velocities before you can cram it into a tank. Some of the gas in space may already be moving very fast, may even be in an orbit, but it is probably not aligned with the orbit of your tank.

                              Either way, the energy required to maintain operations anywhere near Jupiter means you probably want to find your hydrogen somewhere else.

                              • gmailsyncer 6 years ago
                                Assuming there really is other intelligent life out there, "where you were born" seems to make a huge difference in what your species can accomplish in its lifetime.

                                Seems like we are somewhat validating Vernor Vinge's "zones of thought" idea

                            • 6 years ago
                              • analog31 6 years ago
                                My Park Tool 4-5-6 Allen wrench has not been found. ;-)
                                • yalogin 6 years ago
                                  I know and understand nothing about this topic but given the fact that the universe is infinite by definition makes the conclusive/definitive statement very surprising.
                                  • akvadrako 6 years ago
                                    The universe is not infinite by definition and anyway they are only talking about the visible universe.
                                    • jnordwick 6 years ago
                                      I really dislike when they say "universe" and really mean "visible universe" or when they say infinite but don't really mean it.

                                      I'm not really good at physics at this level so it throws me off. It makes it very difficult to really understand what they are talking about.

                                      You would think physicists would be very precise with their language, by I guess they mostly write for people who are know what they are talking about.

                                      • wahern 6 years ago
                                        The problem is that there's no generic way to describe the universe without contextualizing the characteristic you're interested in. But as a layman (not an astronomer, not a physicist, not a topologist), I'd argue that it's fair to say that the universe is infinite. I say that not only because of where the evidence regarding expansion and geometry of the universe points, but because even in a discussion of the visible universe you have to address the fact that the visible universe is shrinking as objects at the edge disappear due to expansion. Those objects don't cease to exist (at least not unless you make some highly contentious metaphysical arguments), which means there's no avoiding the inference that there can be (and likely are) an infinite number of objects which exist but which are not visible.
                                      • wahern 6 years ago
                                        Huh? Whether the universe is infinite or finite is an open question. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shape_of_the_universe#Infinite...
                                        • akvadrako 6 years ago
                                          I guess the phrase could be parsed two ways but in context it should be clear - the universe is not "infinite by definition". The definition doesn't mention size.
                                          • alanbernstein 6 years ago
                                            If the universe were "infinite by definition", it wouldn't be an open question.
                                        • sandworm101 6 years ago
                                          Who is telling you that the universe is infinite? Astronomers/cosmologists generally all agree that our current universe (the matter-containing 4 dimensions bit we live in) had a defined beginning from which is has grown. There is an outer edge,. defined by the rate of expansion starting from the big bang.
                                          • auntienomen 6 years ago
                                            What you're describing is the 'visible universe'. There may well be other parts of the cosmos outside of our light cone. Einstein's equations allow it, and we have no way of knowing.
                                            • ajuc 6 years ago
                                              No, visible universe is what we can see, it's defined as all the points close enough in spacetime that light from there had enough time to get to us. Visible universe is centered on Earth, much smaller than what GP was talking about, and decreasing steadily (because at the edge of it expansion of space pushes stuff outside faster than speed of light).
                                            • thisismyswamp 6 years ago
                                              The Big Bang supposedly encompassed all of space and had no edges.
                                              • okonomiyaki3000 6 years ago
                                                But what if your Big Bang was only a local bang among an infinite number of bangs so far apart from one another that the light from any of them would take 100s of billions of your earth years to reach its nearest neighbor. Then, even now, they are all expanding toward each other with no way for any of their passengers to know it. You won't need to worry about a heat death or a cold death, you will have a death by collision and probably some kind of rebirth to follow.
                                                • AnimalMuppet 6 years ago
                                                  Has no edges, and therefore unbounded, but still finite in size.
                                                  • sandworm101 6 years ago
                                                    All "space" ie the matter-containing 4d part we live in. There are things before and perhaps outside our universe, brains and such, but that is outside "our universe".
                                                  • aikah 6 years ago
                                                    Then what do physicists call what is beyond the edge of the universe?

                                                    edit: excuse my french ;)

                                                    • jeremyjh 6 years ago
                                                      Imagine you are in inside of a giant beach ball, walking on the surface. You will never find an edge, and it is meaningless to talk about such a thing. Yet the space is finite.
                                                      • Baeocystin 6 years ago
                                                        The universe may or may not be infinite, for some particular definition of infinity. Our light cone, which essentially defines our universe from our point of view, is distinct and measurably finite.
                                                        • khamoud 6 years ago
                                                          I don't think my physician calls the edge of the universe anything unless he's a hobbyist physicist as well.
                                                          • zentropia 6 years ago
                                                            It may mean beyond the observable universe.