Dockless, electric is a game-changer. JUMP bikes hit 20MPH in a few seconds, take less effort than will get you sweaty (critical for meetings/commuting) and you can take the bike lane. Then the vast majority of the time you just hook it up to whatever chunk of metal is nearby and you're done. It's the fastest way between almost any 2 points in SF and often the most convenient too.

At $2 for 30min + $0.07/min it was an absolute steal. At $3 I may have to think harder but if it makes the economics work, I'm still in. I basically stopped using Uber and pay $5-7/day for all the electric biking I need. Could I buy one for a years' fees? Yep. But I don't want to deal with the hassle of owning.

If I'm opening their app regardless of which transportation method I end up using, I'm more likely to keep coming back and will frequently choose to move up a tier (scooter -> bike -> car) if the price is "just a few dollars more".

It's worth considering the data component as well -- there's a tangible benefit to knowing which mode of transportation people are choosing for which trips.

OTOH, I don't think that the e-bike/scooter companies will ever be profitable. I wouldn't be surprised if the people running those companies are equally cynical.

The places where they have become nuisances are largely those that have been flooded with multiple competing (usually dockless) systems, because it turns out that you don't need a large capital investment to create a lot of junk sitting idle that gets in people's way.

I think bikeshare systems should be municipally owned (or at least municipally regulated). For me, the real killer app would be one that lets me get a bikeshare in any city.

Maybe lyft wants to use it to strengthen their brand perception. They have bikes too = they are environmental friendly! Also play the marketing illusion that they are everywhere, as essentially people will be moving around the city riding lyft branded bikes.

s/grand new ponzi//

The capital is cheaper than ever and so is the hype.

Just not the big names

Hence, as long as vandalism is not too much of a problem and thus the service can be provided cheaply, it should be profitable.

There is also a natural moat since once you are subscribed to the service with the most bikes you have an incentive to stick with it.

Lots of dumb money in the market too. Reminds me of Crypto before each collapse.

I've been a Mobike subscriber for a year now (in Berlin). The bikes are crap (i.e. cheap, in need of maintenance) but they are everywhere and I see it as saving on gym cost (hard work to ride one). But, if I need to get from A to B, I get one because I already payed for it. I probably payed them around 100 euros or so over the last year. I just renewed for 3 months for 24 euros. Every time I do this the price seems to change. This gets me unlimited 30 minute rides. After that they charge 1 euro per additional 30 minutes (tip, lock and unlock seems to work). I consider this good value. I don't have to worry about bike repairs, bike theft, or leaving my bike in a dodgy area. As soon as I lock it, it's not my problem.

I've done over 1200 km on mobikes in the last 12 months. Even in the winter when the weather is less nice, I still used them enough to make it worth the subscription.

The back of the envelope math is pretty interesting. If you have 10K users like me that's about 1M revenue. For a city like Berlin (4M inhabitants), you can probably do better. At 100 euro per bike, 1M buys you 10K bikes. I have no idea what these things cost per year but both the upfront investment to flood a city with bikes and setting up the support organization (maintenance mainly) are not that high. I'd say if they shoot for recurring revenue from around 20K users in a city like this, they ought to be very profitable. They have plenty of capacity to improve utilization as at this rate most bikes are not in use most of the time.

The main issues I've seen with competitors is that they think too small. Something like Mobike only makes sense if you can find one without effort. A lot of the failed startups in this space did not have enough bikes or too complex bikes (they break). Launching with a few hundred bikes is pointless. Everybody that did this in Berlin is gone (ofo, byke (with a y), lime, etc. Mobike did this right. They flooded the city with between 5K and 10K bikes. They are all over the place. I suspect the bulk price for these things is pretty OK. The main challenge is the growth strategy: they need recurring revenue.

I suspect Jump, which recently re-launched here, won't make it in Berlin because they don't do subscriptions, their operational zone is tiny, and they don't have enough bikes on the streets. The value proposition kind of sucks compared to Mobike.

Mobike looks like it might fail because their bikes are deteriorating and they seem to be in limbo now that their China based headquarters looks like they want to focus on just China. Apparently they are looking to sell off the European operations. I think it's an operation worth saving but it is going to take an investment to keep their existing user base and there's a bit of urgency because the experience is getting worse as the bikes get shittier.

The only way to mess this up is poor execution. There seems a lot of that in this business. But it's not an inherently bad business.

Have you read the contract terms in the article you're linking to? SFMTA is saying the contract was for 'docked bikes only' while Lyft is saying it was for a Bike Sharing Program, which could include docked or dockless bikes. Lyft does a good job describing what 'Bike sharing' is in that document so it will be up to the courts to decide if they're right.

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“Bike sharing” is a public biking system concept that allows customers to rent a bike on a short-term basis from one section of a city and leave it in another section of the city that same day.

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The Term Sheet provided, among other terms, that Motivate was to be the exclusive operator of any bike share system in the Participating Cities for at least ten (10) years.

The Term Sheet provided (emphasis added): “During the Term of this Agreement, Motivate shall have the exclusive right to operate a bike sharing program that utilizes public property and public right of way anywhere within San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland, San Jose and Emeryville.”

The city fucked up hugely by making an exclusive deal with Ford/Motive (acquired by Lyft).

If you want to be mad at someone, be mad at SF government.

The rule of law means that you don't get to change contracts you've signed.

It was a bad contract but SF Government does many bad things, like repressive zoning and banning scooters.

Go vote them out of the office.

I mean it's pain in the ass when I have to move the crap from the front steps of my building or out of the driveway because people aren't courteous their dockless transport widgets. I'm alright walking a little ways to dock a bike/scooter as a user, but I'm firmly against any company or city that lets users dump crap on the streets without penalties. It's littering.

End result, people going back to Uber/Lyft to get around. Shocking that traffic in SF is as bad as it's ever been.

Boston has Bluebikes (e: seems like it's a partnership with Motivate?), also pretty cheap. A lot of people I knew in Boston had some kind of discounted rate through their employer where they got unlimited complimentary 30-minute rides.

You used to only be able to purchase 1-day, 3-day, or 5-day passes, it was about the same price as long as you used it at least twice a day. At $2 per ride, it's much more flexible, so you can choose transit or bikes depending on the weather or whatever.

I see you've updated your post, but for completeness I'll list their plans (from https://www.lyft.com/bikes/bay-wheels/pricing):

Monthly no-commitment is $15 and you get unlimited 45-minute rentals. If I go work downtown for a week even, I'd get this. 45 minutes is great for a little after work exploration. When I'm in SF for business, I often bike somewhere after work (along the Embarcadero, Market street, South Beach, or around Chinatown), then drop off the bike, walk around some more, get food, then get another bike back to my hotel.

Edited to add: looks like they now have docking stations in the Haight-Ashbury, so you could get a bike to Golden Gate park, switch bikes, have 45 min around the park, and switch again to get back downtown.

Annual is $149 per year for unlimited 45-minute rentals. That is really cheap for a maintenance-free bike whenever you're in the city. I used to commute with my bike on Caltrain, and this would make it not worth the hassle (depends on how you get to your home station and how close your office is to one of their docking stations).

Also, monthly and annual plans might be paid for by your employer as part of your transit benefits.

I decided to take the membership and use the bikes for short trips within SF. I figured I've saved more that $100 in Uber/Lyft rides in the last year (+ it's healthier, better for the environment etc)

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motivate_(company)

Bike Share Toronto is heavily subsidized by the city and Ontario, and operates at a loss: https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2019/02/28/bike-share...

These seem to be be "docked". Wasn't Lime's problem that they were "dockless" and wound up being trash everywhere?

Can't find the source I read this in originally, but will keep looking.

Uber and Lyft have proven that drivers and riders don't want to think particularly hard. They want a magic button that either a) makes a car show up or b) feeds them customers.

As for the business side, there's no good reason to think that this would even cut costs on Uber's side -- they still need to maintain all of their lobbying costs, their server and engineer costs to maintain the bidding app, their marketing costs, etc.