Brexit: ‘the biggest disaster any government has ever negotiated’

55 points by DrNuke 3 years ago | 81 comments
  • matthewmacleod 3 years ago
    Honestly it’s just a massive pain in the arse for any company that does business in the single market. Exporting and importing is now more expensive and wrapped in miles of red tape. It hurts small businesses in particular, who can’t exploit economies of scale in dealing with the bureaucracy.

    Even trying to be somewhat objective about it, it is genuinely difficult to see where any concrete benefits are going to come from.

    • Olumde 3 years ago
      I used to live in the seaside town of Bournemouth and every summer thousands of teenage kids from all over Europe would come to study at the many language schools which are now suffering and tanking local economies thanks To Brexit.

      https://www.ft.com/content/64346956-4ae4-4751-8b81-db7f1d578...

      The Au Pair system too is languishing.

      https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/nov/18/familie...

      • oxfeed65261 3 years ago
        This article is interesting, but it is the perspective of a single cheesemaker who was seriously harmed by Brexit. I would be really interested in a broader analysis of the overall effects of Brexit on the United Kingdom. I looked for this a week or two ago with disappointing results. Can anyone suggest such an article?
        • Veen 3 years ago
          I think the discourse is still too politicized to get a clear view either way. Most outlets synthesizing data from multiple sources have a political axe to grind about Brexit, whether pro or anti, so your best bet is just to look at economic indicators and see how they're doing. Plus, it's difficult to separate Brexit effects from COVID effects.

          Unemployment is very low compared to the last few decades. Government borrowing is obviously very high because of COVID measures. Houses prices are very high, which is good or bad depending on your perspective. GDP is growing and the UK is not in recession, but inflation is rising and that may cause significant problems next year.

          It'll probably be a few years before we can definitively say whether the UK is going to turn into a basket case or not.

          • lazyeye 3 years ago
            Also the benefit may not be directly measurable but still incredibly important.

            For example what will be the cumulative impact over the next 100 years of having the people in the UK making the decisions, directly accountable to voters again.

            • Arnt 3 years ago
              Could you explain how Boris is being held directly accountable? And perhaps some decisions that might lead to some incredibly important benefit?
            • wdb 3 years ago
              Would help if UK started to actually implementing things
            • AnimalMuppet 3 years ago
              If it's really "the biggest disaster that any government has ever negotiated", then they ought to be able to find a bit more evidence than one cheesemaker. I mean, I get that they want people to be able to relate to the alleged harm on a personal level. But they also need to demonstrate that the harm is pervasive. Failing to do so makes an emotional story, but an unconvincing one.
              • matthewmacleod 3 years ago
                It’s just not possible yet - and be warned that any article which tries to say otherwise is likely pushing an agenda.

                Brexit only really happened a year ago, in terms of rules actually changing - right in the middle of the pandemic, which will make it difficult to understand the effects for some time to come.

                • mythrwy 3 years ago
                  “Well, obviously it’s not meant to be taken literally; it refers to any manufacturers of dairy products.”
                  • Veen 3 years ago
                    Only those who sell direct to consumers. Companies who sell to distributors and retailers in the EU work with different rules.
                • 999900000999 3 years ago
                  I visited London right after Brexit.

                  Young people got heavily screwed out of visa free work in Europe.

                  Fear mongering and xenophobia unfortunately won in Britain. I wonder if in 10 years or so it would be possible to re enter the EU

                  • Veen 3 years ago
                    What's stopping them getting a visa if they need one? I don't understand this xenophobia point: post-Brexit, the evil xenophobic Tories changed the visa rules so that 3 million Hong Kong citizens were entitled to live here.

                    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899

                    In 2020, 715,000 people immigrated to the UK and in 2021 there were 4 million foreign nationals working here.

                    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06...

                    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati...

                    It doesn't sound terribly xenophobic to me.

                    • pydry 3 years ago
                      >the evil xenophobic Tories changed the visa rules so that 3 million Hong Kong citizens were entitled to live here.

                      Most of the tory leaders are ambivalent or even pro immigration - it helps drag down working class wages and push up rents after all.

                      Their apparent lack of willingness to do anything about it was what led to so many voter defections to UKIP/Brexit parties.

                      Their core voting bloc - being led by the nose via the likes of the telegraph and the mail are the ones who really want it stopped.

                      • LatteLazy 3 years ago
                        For a lot of EU countries they had no visa processes for UK citizens because no one had needed one for decades.

                        Then there is the difficulty of getting a visa. The expense, the time, the effort, the weird rules.

                        I looked at getting a German visa as I worked there on and off. But I can't because my German is meh. That was no problem for my employers, coworkers or people I knew there. But it is now.

                        That's what I stopping us...

                        • Veen 3 years ago
                          So, German visa requirements are somehow the fault of the UK government? Nothing stops the German government from relaxing visa requirements if they choose to.
                        • w0de0 3 years ago
                          Good point. Not sure why they invented the EU in the first place. Bunch of unnecessary bother, really.
                          • Veen 3 years ago
                            Over half of UK citizens agree with you, although I'm not sure how simply repeating the majority opinion helps with this conversation.
                          • thorawy88 3 years ago
                          • decremental 3 years ago
                            Having seen Alien, fear of xenos is warranted.
                          • Veen 3 years ago
                            In fact, the rules around importing whole milk products direct to the consumer have nothing to do with Brexit negotiations. It's a rule that was introduced by the EU in December 2019 and it applies to all third-party countries. It's unlikely in the extreme that the UK would ever have been given an exemption post-Brexit.
                            • aurizon 3 years ago
                              Yes, once the UK 'Brexited', it became a foreign producer = protective rules/tariffs etc
                          • aurizon 3 years ago
                            The Brexit addled PM essentially killed the UK toehold in the EU. They are now a pimple on an elephant. More and more EU buyers and sellers with both with the added paperwork for Customs and VAT and do not forget label and electrical standards are just not going to both and will not buy/sell to the UK. Here in Canada we see many ebay sellers with "not shipped to Canada" for simple added postage/UPS/DHL procedures - which cost extra. UPS and USPS will ship to Canada - but it needs more labelling, a pro-forma customs invoice, and a different process to ship.

                            The UK is already ruing the day that they let Johnson and the Brexit RA-RA stampede them into leaving. Labor and manufacturing are already being hammered - which Brexit blames on Covid....after Covid...it will not be coming back.

                            Time for a new PM/Party/whatever!!!

                            • thomascgalvin 3 years ago
                              > The Brexit addled PM essentially killed the UK toehold in the EU.

                              I'm sitting on the sidelines in the US, where we have our own problems, but this seems like the kind of unforced error that results in generations-long harm.

                              The UK gambled that their ball was so important that threatening to take it and go home would force concessions from everyone else in the EU. The EU, instead, has made it clear that the UK needs to EU, not the other way around.

                              This leaves the UK with no bargaining chips. The very best they can hope for is being able to come back to the table, hat in hand, asking to be readmitted. And even if the EU allows them to return, there will be no special considerations given to the UK this time around.

                              There are literally no upsides for the UK here.

                              • bakuninsbart 3 years ago
                                > The UK gambled that their ball was so important that threatening to take it and go home would force concessions from everyone else in the EU. The EU, instead, has made it clear that the UK needs to EU, not the other way around.

                                The UK overplayed their hand to the point where for the EU, Brexit was the better of bad choices, but it is wrong to think that we do not need the UK. Losing one of the largest economies in the world with one of the best militaries is certainly a major blow to the amount of power the EU can project abroad, and the new trade barriers have also negatively affected both our economic projections. Looking at percentage of world GDP, the EU's share (well, today's members) has been steadily declining since the early 90s, while the US stayed constant at around 25% of global GDP and developing countries, mostly China, has a much larger piece of the pie.

                                Long-term, the UK's idea of more closely alligning with its former colonies might actually not be so bad, as there were always strong limits on how much the UK could do within the EU, and how much it would be willing to take. Demographics and stagnant politics aren't really pointing towards a rosy future of most countries in the EU. On the other hand, with the UK gone, the EU has the chance to go ahead with a couple of projects, including federalization, that before would have had a strong vote against from the UK.

                                Overall, we are all worse off, and currently being in a long-distance relationship UK-Germany, I'm just really saddened and frustrated by the things happening.

                                • caffeine 3 years ago
                                  I think your latter point is actually important. I think that while disastrous for the UK, Brexit will be great for the EU.

                                  The UK was holding back the closer integration (like close military integration) that would make the EU a relevant power.

                                  • enjoy-your-stay 3 years ago
                                    Could somebody actually tell me which 'colonies' they're meaning when people talk of this?

                                    As far as I can tell they're either already trading as much with the UK as they want to be (AUS,NZ), or have a rather one-way interest (India, US).

                                    Could anybody elaborate more on these supposed advantages?

                                  • inglor_cz 3 years ago
                                    "The very best they can hope for is being able to come back to the table, hat in hand, asking to be readmitted."

                                    As far as I know both the UK and the EU, this is not going to happen. Not just out of pride; the UK and the Franco-German axis of the EU were never a good political match and after this divorce, they will drift even more apart, because they do not need to hammer out compromises anymore.

                                    IMHO the UK was smart to avoid entering the Eurozone. The monetary union without fiscal union is a wobbly construction, papered over by extremely low interest rates and sovereign debt buying programs such as PEPP.

                                    One of the important features of earlier EEC was convergence of the periphery with the center; it still works to some degree in Central and Eastern Europe, but it stopped working in the Mediterranean.

                                    • tim333 3 years ago
                                      >threatening to take it and go home would force concessions

                                      Trouble is the EU laws were agreements between 28 countries and can't easily be changed to suit one odd case. That was always the situation and the "we'll negotiate a good deal" thing was mostly lies for political purposes.

                                      • Veen 3 years ago
                                        The UK is the third-biggest importer of goods from the EU after the US and China. It's an enormous market for EU goods which the EU most certainly needs. The UK is also the only nation in the geographic area except France with anything like a world-class military (although it doesn't compare to the US in that regard). It's also the second-biggest financial center in the world (and sometimes first depending on the relative position of New York and London).

                                        It's not as though the UK will be holding out a begging bowl because the EU decides to be difficult. It will, however, have to develop new markets, which will take some time and cause some issues, including the cheese issue in this story. There will be ups and downs as the situation finds a new balance.

                                        • ramphastidae 3 years ago
                                          > The UK is the third-biggest importer of goods from the EU after the US and China. It's an enormous market for EU goods which the EU most certainly needs.

                                          The point is that the UK needs the EU much more than the EU needs the UK.

                                          • xwolfi 3 years ago
                                            I think you suffer from myopia. The 4th export target of the EU is... Switzerland. Do we need Switzerland ?

                                            No, the fact the UK is geographically close to the EU and has no choice to import from us, does not make it as important as China, 20% of humanity, and the US, a giant economic power.

                                            We need to find a way to redirect/enrich India, another 20% of humanity, to import from us before following the UK in whatever folly takes them over their nationalist cheese ambitions.

                                            South America is too close to North America, but if we destabilize the India/China relationship enough while finding a way to move them forward in consumption, they could choose to import more than they do from the US... or the UK I guess ?

                                            As for Africa, I'm not sure how their import are, but it's probably going to take a while before reaching Chinese levels :(

                                            • CRConrad 3 years ago
                                              > It's not as though the UK will be holding out a begging bowl because the EU decides to be difficult.

                                              Oh, so it was the EU that decided to change the status quo ante?

                                          • 3 years ago
                                          • Gravityloss 3 years ago
                                            I'm not familiar with the matter at all, but wouldn't there be a flip side, that his company has now a lot less competition from EU cheese makers in the UK?
                                            • zarzavat 3 years ago
                                              The UK is too densely populated to be agriculturally self-sufficient, thus all major parties believe in free market principles when applied to food imports, because attempts at protectionism would lead to huge inflation and would doom any party that tried it.

                                              The only debate is whether food should be imported from the US or from the EU.

                                              • skywhopper 3 years ago
                                                Depends on whether the UK was a net exporter of such products.
                                                • Gravityloss 3 years ago
                                                  I vaguely remember a story where, shortly after the Soviet Union collapsed, someone managed to take over a factory making erasers and made a fortune. Maybe it was the only functioning one and imports didn't work for some reason...
                                                  • halpert 3 years ago
                                                    “Russian oligarchs” you hear about so often in the news are essentially gangsters that pilfered the valuable assets from the collapsed USSR. Many different types of factories were taken and profited from.
                                                • hunglee2 3 years ago
                                                  he deals with this question at the end of the interview, when he says marketing costs have gone through the roof as all other UK (ex)exporters now are forced to focus on (much smaller) domestic UK market
                                                  • 3 years ago
                                                  • CodeGlitch 3 years ago
                                                    Sigh. Not this discussion again.

                                                    Also it's the guardian, may as well post a telegraph article that says the exact opposite.

                                                    My take on it: when money is involved, humans are excellent at optimising those systems.

                                                    Look at the lengths and success of people/companies go through to minimise paying tax.

                                                    What I'm trying to say is that we'll be fine once the existing systems are optimised for us not being in the EU. Obviously we're in the adjustment period, and I feel sorry for the people struggling with that.

                                                    • zarzavat 3 years ago
                                                      There's nothing optimal or rational about international trade. It's full of the most vocal minorities screwing things up for everyone else (and sometimes themselves, see fishermen voting for Brexit). That's why trade agreements are usually negotiated in secret, to protect the parties from themselves.

                                                      In 20 years when the coalition of bigots and reactionaries and profiteers that gave us this mess have expired, we might be able to return to something resembling a rational arrangement. Or not, perhaps we will slip further and further into oblivion such as Russia did after the USSR.

                                                      • native_samples 3 years ago
                                                        UK fishermen voted for Brexit because it would directly lead to larger fishing quotas for themselves, the UK being an island surrounded by fish that was forced to give up most of its fishing rights over its own seas to (amongst others) the French and Spanish, who have plenty of coastline of their own and a reputation for aggression.

                                                        Given that fishermen weren't exactly ever migrating in droves to Berlin to become language teachers, that decision seems to be pretty much the epitome of rationality. The fact that you picked it as your best example of why people should live in a dictatorship in which they aren't even aware the rules are being made, let alone able to object, speaks volumes about the nature of EU ideology and why the UK was right to leave.

                                                        • CodeGlitch 3 years ago
                                                          > In 20 years when the coalition of bigots

                                                          I was willing to listen to your argument up to this point. Throwing the "everyone who I disagree with is a bigot" around is very old hat at this point.

                                                          • d1sxeyes 3 years ago
                                                            I definitely would not say that everyone who voted to leave the EU is a bigot, but it's fairly undeniable that a lot of bigots supported (and ran campaigns around) leaving the EU...
                                                          • pydry 3 years ago
                                                            >That's why trade agreements are usually negotiated in secret

                                                            The last deal I saw negotiated in secret and then leaked (TPP) ended up being a corporate wishlist that benefitted nobody except large companies.

                                                            The most absurd part was that it was more about extending copyright and setting up extra-judicial courts than dropping tarriffs yet they still called it a "free trade deal".

                                                            Fortunate that it was leaked otherwise this abortion of a deal would have passed.

                                                          • LatteLazy 3 years ago
                                                            Leaving the eu isn't really something you can adjust to. It's like losing a limb: you might learn to do without, but it's loss you work around not one that grows back...
                                                            • CodeGlitch 3 years ago
                                                              Is it? The UK had a global empire before the EU existed. I'm not suggesting we go back to colonising far off lands, but clearly a nation can be successful outside the EU (there a plenty of examples of that). What an absurd idea.
                                                              • LatteLazy 3 years ago
                                                                To clarify my metaphor...

                                                                A person can absolutely be successful after losing a limb. But it's a lot easier if they haven't lost the limb. And when you lose a limb because of serious systemic issues (like the UK has) the chances of going on to be successful are... Dire.

                                                                That's where the UK is. Success is entirely possible. And that's the faintest praise anyone can give isn't?

                                                                • Kim_Bruning 3 years ago
                                                                  Many of the the (other) EU countries had global empires too. Fortunately or unfortunately the era of global colonialism has ended.

                                                                  Since we're all unlikely to be able to conquer large swaths of far-away continents anymore, we're kind of better off working together instead. The alternative is that there's just a bunch of tiny rump-states rusting away in a corner of the globe, pining for our former glory.

                                                                  • vanusa 3 years ago
                                                                    [There a plenty of examples of nations successful outside the EU]

                                                                    But not nations actually in, you know, Europe.

                                                              • jokoon 3 years ago
                                                                It's a pretty nice experiment to see what happens when you don't encourage trade.

                                                                The biggest benefit from trade between countries is that it prevents war.

                                                                • ekianjo 3 years ago
                                                                  Erm, so because you suffer from the changes, suddenly you generalize to "the biggest disaster ever"?
                                                                  • rayiner 3 years ago
                                                                    • coolso 3 years ago
                                                                      I'm a little surprised such a histrionic headline is sticking for this one here. After living through the same dramatic statements every day from 2016-2020 here in the US about how the last administration was the biggest disaster ever, well, thanks to that "disaster" we had gas that was $1.50/gal cheaper, inflation was minimal, taxes were lower, we had far fewer illegal border crossings, a competent leader for getting us out of Afghanistan the right way, and so on. But, if you read the headlines daily, the world was coming to an end.

                                                                      Today we have a more polite president, but far more expensive gas, crazy inflation, the Afghanistan situation was a mess, we have the most illegal border crossings in decades and decades, and double the deaths in the same period as the last administration. But if you read the headlines, things are heading in the right direction, well, because, totally unbiased of course. Bad things happen, but they're really not a big deal, and actually, Biden doesn't really have much to do with it. Here's Why.

                                                                      The media drives me nuts.

                                                                      • Grakel 3 years ago
                                                                        Biggest disaster ever because a cheese maker can't export to countries that already have thriving cheese industries.
                                                                        • aurizon 3 years ago
                                                                          Yes, no longer a 'domestic cheesemaker', now they are a more less barred by the protectionism