Microsoft Bets That Fusion Power Is Closer Than Many Think

88 points by jimmy2020 2 years ago | 83 comments
  • burkaman 2 years ago
    Do they really believe that, or are they just trying to look greener and make their carbon negative commitment look more real?

    > “We wouldn’t enter into this agreement if we were not optimistic that engineering advances are gaining momentum,” said Microsoft President Brad Smith.

    Why not? What's the downside for Microsoft, even if they think this probably won't happen by 2028? They even get paid "penalties" if Helion doesn't deliver.

    • asdfman123 2 years ago
      > are they just trying to look greener

      Absolutely not! They’re also trying to look cutting edge.

    • dotBen 2 years ago
      Given the implications of this technology I wonder how much development is actually being done "in the open". And therefore how close to a breakthrough we are, whether a breakthrough has already occured and we are being fed delayed findings, and ultimately how a private organization like Microsoft would truly be able to access matured tech.

      Whether by incentive or by coercion, it feels like the DOD and the DOE would want to have first access to any breakthroughs and also guard knowledge transfers (ie protect any program - commerical or government - from foreign state espionage).

      The DOE is basically an entire national security organization centered around nuclear security, it seems unlikely they would be standing by watching R&D in fusion occur without a seat at the table.

      • DennisP 2 years ago
        Given climate change, if Helion works then it would be in the interest of the US for it to spread worldwide as quickly as possible. Especially since it uses a mostly-aneutronic reaction.
        • nordsieck 2 years ago
          > Given climate change, if Helion works then it would be in the interest of the US for it to spread worldwide as quickly as possible. Especially since it uses a mostly-aneutronic reaction.

          The US may want cheap energy to spread world wide. That doesn't necessarily mean the US wants fusion tech to spread world wide.

          • DennisP 2 years ago
            There's nothing scary about this. If it works it'll be very cheap, dispatchable power with no need for storage, curtailment, long-distance transmission, or demand management. It works just as well in any location, is massively scalable, and isn't really helpful for making bombs.
          • incahoots 2 years ago
            That really depends on how fast they can capitalize on doing so. Whilst it's nice to think America would share such tech willingly, I'd offer the reality that if it's not generating a revenue, it's not being given away.
            • DennisP 2 years ago
              Helion plans to build a factory churning out twenty 50MW reactors per day, capable of producing dispatchable electricity for about $0.01/kWh. If they achieve that then revenue won't be a problem.
              • bheadmaster 2 years ago
                > Whilst it's nice to think America would share such tech willingly, I'd offer the reality that if it's not generating a revenue, it's not being given away. reply

                On the contrary, I think as long as it's generating revenue, it's not going to be given away. Remember that UNIX was popularized only because AT&T were under anti-trust sanctions and couldn't sell it.

            • aaronblohowiak 2 years ago
              Are most fusion reactor designs a national security concern? I am not a nuclear physicist but from my rudimentary understanding of most modern approaches I don’t see how they would help with bad stuff (other than creating material for a dirty bomb through waste perhaps)
              • sylens 2 years ago
                Energy independence would upend a lot of international trade markets and therefore geopolitical stability in some areas. If you don't need Saudi Arabia for oil, why do you care what happens there?
                • onlyrealcuzzo 2 years ago
                  Isn't that in everyone's interest besides KSA?
                  • nradov 2 years ago
                    The USA is already largely energy independent. We import very little oil from Saudi Arabia. But if the price of fusion power gets low enough (questionable) then that would obviously have a huge impact on international trade.
                    • BlackSwanMan 2 years ago
                      [dead]
                      • darksaints 2 years ago
                        It is in the interest of global stability that we absolutely decimate Saudi Arabia, as well as Russia. Other oil producing nations suck too, but they mostly suck internally, whereas KSA and Russia are oil-funded international terrorist regimes.
                    • mensetmanusman 2 years ago
                      Disruption outside of the government eye is common, I wouldn’t be surprised. Those organizations focus on nuclear weapons tech.
                    • gregw2 2 years ago
                      My impression is that Gates (and other tech billionaires) have been investing in fusion for a decade, so he probably knows or has leverage/access to people who know what’s going on, ergo Microsoft does too.

                      There is expertise in DOE and DOD, but there is an also a lot of private capital being invested in companies that don’t need to talk themselves up much. People in the industry generally know who most of the players are; that’s how you or your technical peers/friends get a job after all.

                      I don’t see a particular need for there to have been a top secret breakthrough to explain this deal.

                    • deadeye 2 years ago
                      Worth watching about Helion:

                      https://youtu.be/_bDXXWQxK38

                      • maeln 2 years ago
                        The response by Improbable Matter is also interesting in its own right https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vUPhsFoniw
                        • audunw 2 years ago
                          Then you should also read this comment: https://www.reddit.com/r/fusion/comments/10g95m9/comment/j67...

                          From what I can gather a lot of Improbable Matter's critisism is based on misunderstandings or flawed understanding of Helion's specific approach. But yes, it's a good watch if you don't blindly trust his conclusions.

                          • carlhjerpe 2 years ago
                            Thunderf00t, YouTubes own cynic also made a video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3VGDCa9fZg

                            We know we can achieve fusion, but as far as I'm informed we still don't know that we can take more energy out than we put in.

                            • thangalin 2 years ago
                              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor

                              > On December 13, 2022, the United States Department of Energy announced that NIF had exceeded the previously elusive Q ≥ 1 milestone on December 5, 2022. This was achieved by producing 3.15 MJ after delivering 2.05 MJ to the target, for an equivalent Q of 1.54.

                              • audunw 2 years ago
                                No.. just no. Don't watch anything by Thunderf00t. It has been too many times now that he has clearly put out just the lowest effort thing he can make to "debunk" some topic. Doesn't matter. People will view his videos anyway. I think "debunking" channels are inherently problematic because they attract viewers who like to feel smart, but don't actually want to deeply understand a topic. The conclusion is already pre-determined. The topic has to be debunked.

                                Improbable Matters video is.. OK. He raises some valid concerns. I think he was genuinely trying to understand and critisize the technology honostly. Though it seems he misunderstands some key facts. I've never seen that kind of honesty with Thunderf00t.

                            • bob1029 2 years ago
                              Agreed - I had no idea they were skipping the steam/turbine stuff. This is a compelling concept because it looks like it could actually scale.
                            • PaulHoule 2 years ago
                              Gates might also be the most enthusiastic person about fast breeder reactors as he has put a lot of effort and money into SMRs, breed-and-burn fuel cycles, and making up the for the high cost of a three-stage heat transfer system by using the intermediate coolant to store energy ahead of time.
                              • steve1977 2 years ago
                                Is that why they keep developing stuff with Electron?
                                • causi 2 years ago
                                  Microsoft Bets That Fusion Power Is Closer Than Many Think

                                  "Bet" implies a potential for loss. This is a couch-cushion spare change level "bet". Microsoft probably spends more on printer ink every month than they stand to lose on this bet.

                                  • onlyrealcuzzo 2 years ago
                                    It's a power purchase agreement.

                                    They're going to get ~$50M worth of power. Either they're going to overpay for Fusion or overpay for energy from some other source if Helion can't deliver and has to pay for it via penalty.

                                    It's not really much of a risk for MSFT.

                                    But it's a great headline for Helion to pass on to clueless people.

                                    • chx 2 years ago
                                      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/microsoft-agrees-to-buy-powe...

                                      > Helion’s deal with Microsoft is to get 50 megawatts online,

                                      Looking at solar costs https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/capital-costs... 50MW in solar would cost 50-100M and I can't imagine this could be much more expensive or it wouldn't be competitive at all. Microsoft annual operating expenses for 2022 were $114.887B so about a 1-2000 times more.

                                    • lisasays 2 years ago
                                      https://archive.ph/oYpP6
                                      • avalys 2 years ago
                                        Given that Helios hasn’t demonstrated production of any amount of energy from fusion, this is probably just bullshit, like the United “order” for supersonic jets from Boom a few months ago. Similarly, Boom has not even flown a prototype yet.
                                        • emaginniss 2 years ago
                                          I'm not sure why you're so negative on a business model that has worked for tech startups for decades now. Many businesses have started by promising to fix a problem experienced by a larger entity. Along with product guidance, the startup often gets capital in the form of investment. The larger company gets a low-risk attempt to solve their problem with the possibility of upside in the case of a larger than expected success.
                                          • kevmo314 2 years ago
                                            The larger company's involvement feels closer to nepotism.

                                            If Helion actually pulls off productive fusion, Microsoft will buy the power regardless. Same with Boom, if their jet really is efficient, United would buy one no matter what because it makes business sense. Signaling like this feels more like a marketing campaign to investors rather than a signal of potential.

                                            • asdfman123 2 years ago
                                              Putting gas into my car is a good idea, but putting gas into my dog isn’t quite so reasonable.
                                            • asdfman123 2 years ago
                                              Helion gets to survive 5 more years, Microsoft risks nothing, they both get good PR for associating themselves with one another.
                                              • justrealist 2 years ago
                                                Helios is building real facilities. Maybe it won't work, but it's not just drafting CAD templates — they are deploying capital into physical reactors. That's not bullshit.
                                            • user6723 2 years ago
                                              The Safire plasma has self-containing magnetic fields and does not require artificial magnet infrastructure. Safire plasma can stay "lit" at under 240 watts of power input almost indefinitely.

                                              Here is some raw video of plasma in a Safire chamber vaporizing a tungsten rod https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y46wMAHnsI

                                              • gumballindie 2 years ago
                                                We just need to redefine fusion and we have it.
                                                • throwuwu 2 years ago
                                                  Sounds like someone has been talking to the base model
                                                  • markus_zhang 2 years ago
                                                    If we get fusion power and ai and longevity up in next 10-20 years it's going to be nightmare for ordinary people. Yeah, nightmare, not paradise.
                                                    • partiallypro 2 years ago
                                                      I don't see the fusion argument, but I can see the AI argument at least temporarily making lives worse. What is the argument that fusion power would? It would definitely destabilize countries like Saudi Arabia, but otherwise seems like a win. Even still you have to have petroleum products for most anything and everything.
                                                      • markus_zhang 2 years ago
                                                        In my model I don't segment people by countries. I segment them by classes -- peasants and aristocrats. So actually, I wouldn't worry about Saudian aristocrats because I'm sure they will prosper as long as they plan accordingly.
                                                      • throwuwu 2 years ago
                                                        Wide adoption of longevity tech is necessary to prevent population collapse. AI also doesn’t seem like it’s going to stay cooped up for long, there’s a solid chance that open source projects beat OpenAI to the punch as well if scaling is no longer productive beyond this point
                                                        • BlueTemplar 2 years ago
                                                          What population collapse ? And why would longevity-extending techniques help ?
                                                          • throwuwu 2 years ago
                                                            I’m amazed you haven’t heard of this before now. The entire West has had a fertility rate below replacement for decades and now even China has joined the party and India is going to be there really soon. The way Africa is developing they probably only have a few decades left. If we don’t find a way to turn this around then all of our golden years are going to spent desperately trying to prevent the global economy from collapsing.

                                                            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_ter...

                                                        • slothtrop 2 years ago
                                                          A rapid transition would necessitate the need for legislative/policy changes. People aren't going to complacently waddle in "nightmares".

                                                          Workers already feel priced out of the housing market, just add it to the pile.

                                                          • nradov 2 years ago
                                                            There will be no rapid transition. Even if Helion's design actually works (and it might not), the plants will be expensive to construct. It would take decades to scale up production.
                                                          • HPsquared 2 years ago
                                                            Not fully automated luxury space communism?
                                                            • euroderf 2 years ago
                                                              Still working out the kinks in the requirements spec.
                                                          • ThomPete 2 years ago
                                                            Fusion is not just another way to power our lightbulbs it's a completely different kind of energy.

                                                            Two unique properties of energy density like Fusion.

                                                            1. The ability to hit 10% of the speed of light in space 2. The ability to create fundamental elements like gold, silver etc.

                                                            Another good example of the fact that there are no scarcity of resources only scarcity of knowledge. Resources are created not found.

                                                            Edit: Why am I being downvoted?

                                                            • tasty_freeze 2 years ago
                                                              Fusion releases energy when producing items lighter than iron. It requires energy to create atoms heavier than iron via fusion. It would cost huge amounts of money to produce an ounce of silver or gold that way.
                                                              • ThomPete 2 years ago
                                                                I am not talking about tomorrow. I am talking about the potential of what you can do with the energy density.
                                                                • nradov 2 years ago
                                                                  Regardless of energy density, creating gold in a fusion reactor will still be more expensive than digging it out of the ground. We are far from exhausting that natural resource.
                                                                • xenonite 2 years ago
                                                                  However, the gold standard is no more.