How to feed all the power-hungry AI data centers
37 points by madpen 1 year ago | 61 comments- caminante 1 year agoThis article is keyword stuffed nonsense.
Take the first sentence.
> As recently discussed on The Carbon Copy with Brian Janous, utilities are seeing major forecasted demand growth for the first time in decades, and almost entirely from data centers.
Utilities aren't seeing major forecasted demand growth for the first time in decades. It isn't entirely from DCs.
The author appears to have a startup, pitching a Power to NatGas plus direct air capture system because "Why not?™" [0]. I'm offended on behalf of chemical engineers everywhere.
[0]https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2023/06/26/the-ter...
- ponorin 1 year agoi have a crazy idea... how about... not focusing on ever increasing the size of ai models, so that we don't need to build all those power-hungry ai training datacenters? just a thought
- infecto 1 year agoIt’s always interesting to see these ideas on a tech forum.
Should we as humanity stop right here? Draw a line in the sand and not do anything new? Maybe we should move backwards, skipping the Industrial Revolution and go back to each individual growing their own food?
This is a serious question. What do you propose? Because you are not able to pick and choose what humanity tries out, so shall we stop entirely?
- bee_rider 1 year agoI think it is not very generous to interpret somebody suggesting that we try different things, as
> Because you are not able to pick and choose what humanity tries out, so shall we stop entirely?
I don’t see anything that dictatorial in their suggestion.
There’s clearly something wrong in the current LLM based ecosystem. They take gigawatt-hours to train and digest the entire corpus of the internet to produce a model that writes at, what, the level of an erudite college freshman?
> not focusing on ever increasing the size of ai models, so that we don't need to build all those power-hungry ai training datacenters?
I read the italic bit as not a command to stop, but a suggestion to come up with better algorithms. Which researchers are presumably working on. Hopefully chatGPT & friends don’t suck up all the oxygen.
- infecto 1 year ago> There’s clearly something wrong in the current LLM based ecosystem
LLMs are in their infancy and we have individuals calling for reduced usage of electricity along withothers like yourself saying something is wrong with them. I simply believe those are wild opinions to have for a space that is still so new. Either business finds these tools useful in the long run or not and that will drive prices and efficiency.
- infecto 1 year ago
- korijn 1 year agoWe should invent solutions for problems that we have, instead of wildly trying to apply this tech to everything we can think of. We are skipping the benefit/cost considerations.
- parpfish 1 year agoPeople are doing cost/benefits analyses. It’s just that defining costs and benefits are subjective and you disagree with their decisions
- infecto 1 year agoMany companies and individuals are figuring out the benefits. There are number of companies that are seeing real value. We are not skipping anything.
- okr 1 year agoIs AI not a solution for our problems? I can imagine a declining population, a younger generation, that does not want to reproduce, neither working off the available work. We need a solution for that.
So we need systems, that learns human knowledge, refines it, makes it better and takes over all of the work.
And for programmers: is sitting not the new cig smoking and drinking alcohol for early death?
- parpfish 1 year ago
- jairuhme 1 year agoI'd argue that the innovation with these models is making smaller. Just throwing compute resources to make a model with more parameters is easy and doesn't really expand our knowledge. IMO, larger and larger LLM's aren't that impressive. Being able to shrink that model down, retain its accuracy (to a degree) and be able to run it on smaller hardware is impressive and will more likely lead to AI/ML being intertwined within people's day-to-day
- infecto 1 year agoDon’t disagree and I think it is natural evolution similar other aspect of tech. We innovate and then make it more efficient. I don’t want to stop the opportunity to innovate because of electricity usage though.
- infecto 1 year ago
- m463 1 year agoYes, you can't save yourself rich.
I think these kinds of things will be solved by market forces.
- makerdiety 1 year agoWhat people want is limited by their ability level.
And there's no reason to ever be bullish on liberal (classical) society's capacity for intentional change.
Human agency doesn't mean shit.
- timeon 1 year agoEngineers like to create solutions, not problems.
- ggpsv 1 year agoProne too at creating solutions to problems that do not exist.
- ggpsv 1 year ago
- atoav 1 year ago> Should we as humanity stop right here? Draw a line in the sand and not do anything new?
Maybe someone with the knowledge of hindsight in a few generations will say that, yes, we should stop and draw a line in the sand.
We are still used to the idea that we can treat externalities to the systems we build as infinite and boundless, while it is getting increasingly clear that they are not. I am not saying we should stop working on LLMs. I just say we probably should factor in (that means: assign economic value to) downstream consequences of said high energy consumption if we don't wanna destroy our own habitats. And that then would probably lead to a world where LLMs are used for actually important problems instead of furthering the goals of the few who truly profit from surveillance-capitalism.
But hey, let's continue wasting a years worth of energy on training LLMs on cat pictures, they are cute after all.
- PeterisP 1 year agoThere are unaccounted externalities in many areas, but energy use of LLMs isn't one of them - people are paying full market price for the energy of training or using LLMs, that energy cost is large enough so that people care a LOT about it, and make intentional tradeoffs about what is worth it.
And if people vote with their wallets that they are willing to pay for a years worth of energy on training LLMs on cat pictures, we should respect their choice that apparently this is what they consider a valuable use of the limited resources they have.
- PeterisP 1 year ago
- bamboozled 1 year ago“Thou shalt not question”
- amelius 1 year ago> Should we as humanity stop right here? Draw a line in the sand and not do anything new?
There will be a point when the answer is "yes".
For example, when we can produce hobby 3d printers for biological viruses. Or DIY kits for nuclear weapons. Or cameras that are the size of a grain of sand and cost only 1 cent. Stuff that some individuals might want, but society will never be ready for.
- LegibleCrimson 1 year agoIt's not just "progress" vs "no progress". Some technical innovations, like leaded gasoline, have had more of a negative impact than a positive. It's not a binary, and not all technology is without cost.
The argument against current AI progress isn't anti-technology, it's pointing out that these things can have a hugely negative impact that's mostly being shouted down or swept under the rug in the name of "progress". The climate crisis is pretty serious business, and the AI power consumption is making it worse, not better. The risk of huge amounts of unemployment are being mostly handwaved away as "yeah, that's not gonna happen, we always make jobs out of somewhere".
- bee_rider 1 year ago
- CuriouslyC 1 year agoEven if the models aren't gargantuan, millions of people using AI applications is going to burn a lot of power.
- flextheruler 1 year agoI still haven’t seen a use case that will make AI adopted by the masses I think it’s still mostly hot air. It’s good for what it is for office jobs and higher education, but only for specific tasks and it has to be triple checked.
Just yesterday at work I asked it for a Powershell script to upload a local file to S3 and it hallucinated a method. The whole script is like 10 lines. How could it mess that up, but meanwhile it’s about to change the world and be mass adopted?
This is Claude 3 the best model for coding…
After using these models for awhile I think they’re really helpful to get off the ground in terms of coding and writing and to help review coding and writing, but that’s about all I’ve seen so far. It feels like we’re also getting diminishing returns with the current paradigm so we’ll see if I’ll be eating my hat next year, but I really don’t see mass adoption like a search engine.
- bongodongobob 1 year agoI use ChatGPT4 daily for powershell scripts. The only time it seems to hallucinate is when I'm forcing it to use 4.0 rather than 5.1 or 7.
- CuriouslyC 1 year agoI've had GPT4 produce quite a bit of useful code, and it's indispensable when working with new libraries or in new domains.
- GaggiX 1 year agoHas AI not already been adopted by the masses?
- bongodongobob 1 year ago
- amelius 1 year agoThis only makes their argument stronger.
- flextheruler 1 year ago
- smoldesu 1 year agoBut then who would pay OpenAI to keep building bigg- I mean, smarter models?
- infecto 1 year ago
- dsr_ 1 year agoIf your business model depends on a continuous growth curve where your profitability point is more than two years away... you may be planning for an exit in 18 months.
The only reliable long term growth curves so far are world population and global average temperature.
- x86x87 1 year agoCheck notes.... World population? We're in for a rude awakening.
- x86x87 1 year ago
- richrichie 1 year agoSolar is no way close to being reliable, all weather and cheap source of energy that nuclear and fossil fuel can be, which are critical for the tech industry in general.
- bee_rider 1 year agoThe actual workload in ML model training is totally deferrable. It ought to be very compatible with intermittent power, and actually great for the renewable grid. The two solutions for intermittence are: buy batteries or buy so many solar panels that you still get enough power even when they are operating at like 30% efficiency. A workload that will pay big bucks for any excess power you’ve got will provide the needed ROI for the latter solution.
Unfortunately the chips are all to expensive so everybody wants to run them full-out all the time.
- bee_rider 1 year ago
- pmcf 1 year agoTBH I was expecting something about plugging humans into a huge bioenergy farm and letting them live out their lives in a simulation.
- Nonoyesnoyes 1 year agoEasy: utility of AI is huge, load is understandable and controllable.
DC are run by companies with a shitload of money.
Not a hard problem.
And we can use the heat to heat houses too!
- AtlasBarfed 1 year agoThe problem is that massive amounts of PV is needed to replace existing fossil fuels, so these would be extending the carbon output of coal/natural gas.
If AI training is being that power hungry, maybe we shouldn't be doing it ... right now.
It's all fueled by speculative VC funding. This isn't a slam dunk economics calculation, certainly no more than regulation to shut this nonsense down would be.
- philipkglass 1 year agoThat makes sense if PV deployment is limited by supply. But the solar industry is currently limited by demand. You can see it in market news for solar components:
"Wafer prices stable-to-soft on market oversupply"
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/15/wafer-prices-stable-t...
"Wacker Chemie’s sales, earnings fall in tough market"
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/01/30/wacker-chemies-sales-...
"China polysilicon prices fall 51.8% year-on-year amid supply glut"
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/01/19/china-polysilicon-pri...
"China solar cell prices decline on sluggish downstream demand"
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/01/05/china-solar-cell-pric...
- wffurr 1 year agoI thought building new solar plants was cheaper than operating existing gas and coal plants. What’s hold up on building solar capacity as fast as we can, saturating demand? Permitting? Capital deployment in utility markets?
- philipkglass 1 year agoIn the United States, I think that permitting, interconnection queue backlogs [1], and political efforts to protect legacy coal against cheaper competition [2] are the biggest obstacles.
That said, the US had its best-ever year for solar deployment in 2023, and this year is projected to be even better: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61424
[1] https://www.utilitydive.com/news/grid-interconnection-queue-...
[2] https://montanafreepress.org/2023/06/03/the-battle-for-clean...
- PeterisP 1 year agoIt's not a replacement for the cost of operating existing gas and coal plants; building up new solar capacity enables you to burn less gas or coal at the times when the sun is shining and thus cut its fuel costs, but it does not enable you to shut down the plant and cut any its other operating costs, because you still need the same capacity for e.g. winter evenings when at peak daily consumption there is zero sunlight.
- philipkglass 1 year ago
- wffurr 1 year ago
- hnbad 1 year agoThe problem with renewables is that most people talking about replacing fossil with renewables don't understand how the grid actually works.
What we need the most is better storage technologies. PV, wind and hydro are highly variable which means you need something to cover the gaps between production and demand. Gas and coal plants are actually super useful for this because you can literally scale production up or down as needed by increasing or reducing fuel. If you want to eliminate gas and coal, you need a way to store excess energy and release it on demand - and to be able able to do so at the same scale as with fossil.
And nuclear power is actually worse in this regard because you effectively can't turn a nuclear power plant on or off. If it's on, it must remain on because taking it offline can take days and the same goes for turning it back on. But the problem right now is not lack of production but stability. And stability can only be achieved with better storage technologies - or fossil fuels.
- philipkglass 1 year ago
- bitwize 1 year agoThis might be why Bill Gates is invested so heavily into TerraPower.
- grecy 1 year agoBill Gates has a $1B short position on Tesla.
I wouldn't use what Bill Gates is investing in as any indicator of what we should be doing.
- ProllyInfamous 1 year agoTesla has been on a steady [and IMHO rightful] decline since Jan 3, 2024.
- grecy 1 year agoI meant in terms of doing the right thing for the planet
- hnbad 1 year agoI thought it's widely accepted that the Tesla stock price is heavily inflated relative to the company's actual performance and that Elon Musk is increasingly considered a liability as his vaporware marketing (e.g. the various blatantly misleading claims about the trajectory of FSD capabilities) was a major factor to the stock's growth in the past.
- grecy 1 year ago
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- ProllyInfamous 1 year ago
- grecy 1 year ago