2023 was one of the safest years in commercial aviation

78 points by qubitcoder 1 year ago | 91 comments
  • constantcrying 1 year ago
    It also should be considered that accidents depend on chance. It is completely fine to point out that aviation has gained an enormous standard of safety, which is the result of around of a hundred years of constant vigilance and self improvement of the industry. Nevertheless a commercial airliner, recently produced, lost a door mid flight. Under less fortunate circumstances that could have been a major disaster and the statistic would look very different.

    I think the worry people have is that safety standards are slipping, when it comes to building airplanes, specifically Boeing building airplanes. This is not something that would be noticeable in an accident statistic while it is actually happening, yet it is an extremely serious matter for the safety of aviation in the future.

    • solatic 1 year ago
      This exactly. Looking at the safety record to make predictions about airline safety in the future is like making a bet in 2006 that subprime mortgages should be rated AAA because the price of real estate is always increasing. The real characteristics of what lies beneath the numbers matter.
      • jmward01 1 year ago
        I believe you just made the author's point. The door thing was an issue but in reality it was an incredibly minor issue considering the scale of the industry involved and the incredible reliability we now take for granted. Oh, and the fact that nobody died. Over and over again people are fixating on the door issue because there is basically nothing else to point at. As soon as anything even minor happens panic sets in and it is irrational given the safety record the industry has worked very hard to achieve. There 'could have been' a major disaster on any flight last year, but there wasn't. If we play the 'could have been' game we will always give in to fear and panic. The fact is there wasn't. And there hasn't been for a long time. The author is right to point out that, unfortunately, there will actually be a major event some time in the future but that is because nothing is perfect. In the grand scheme of things though, the airline industry safety record is about as perfect as something can be right now so please stop panicking.
        • jjav 1 year ago
          > so please stop panicking

          That is a very condescending reponse. Auditing the procedures and documenting the problems is not panicking. Such methodical analysis is largely the opposite of panicking.

          You are looking at a very superficial trailing indicator, the number of accidents.

          While that's an important consideration, it is not very useful in terms of predicting future events.

          Given that we now know that procedures are not being followed and records are not being kept, this tells us that the quality standards have slipped abysmally. That does not result in more accidents in the short term, but largely guarantees them in the longer term.

          Boeing is equivalent to a software company with a great track record of not having security vulnerabilities who decides to get rid of the entire security team since nothing is happening and then patting themselves on the back quarter after quarter for all the money they save. Of course, we know the quality will be slipping and slipping and by the time the first vulnerability is exploited a few years later the codebase will be so riddled with holes that there might be no way to recover.

          • jmward01 1 year ago
            My argument, and I believe that of the article, is not about how the industry is handling this but instead how people and the press are handling this. Right now the industry, via regulations and internal pressures, is digging deep into Boeing and the entire culture that allowed this one thing to happen. I have not once argued this is a bad thing. I am continuing to argue that the level of reporting and public reactions deserve the title of 'panic' since they, to me, meet an irrational fear level given the safety track record of the industry as a whole. I encourage you to re-read my comment and tell me where I said the industry should ignore this. People and the press are panicking. The industry is reacting in a sane, well rehearsed and ultimately successful way.
          • csb6 1 year ago
            > The door thing was an issue but in reality it was an incredibly minor issue considering the scale of the industry involved and the incredible reliability we now take for granted. Oh, and the fact that nobody died.

            Rapid cabin depressurization is in fact a major issue for obvious reasons. The fact that no one died was a matter of luck (not at a super high altitude yet, no one sitting directly next to the door, seatbelt light still on, etc.)

            The fact that airlines found many loose/missing bolts on doors in other 737s indicates that Boeing has a QC problem that could lead to future accidents. Systemic QC problems at a major plane manufacturer with aircraft components that are essential to maintaining pressurization is a major issue. The FAA is certainly treating it as such.

            • somenameforme 1 year ago
              The 737 MAX has already been involved in multiple relatively recent fatal crashes. One went down killing everybody on board in 2018, and the same thing happened in 2019. And the scale is quite small. The total number of the entire 737 MAX series craft is less than 1500. [1] That's an extremely high ratio of these craft having errors, including catastrophic. Also, those planes were grounded for some time after the crashes, and air travel rates also plummeted during COVID. So we're only relatively recently getting back to normalcy on that front, and the craft are back to showing their worth.

              [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

              • xcv123 1 year ago
                > Over and over again people are fixating on the door issue because there is basically nothing else to point at

                The door issue revealed severe quality control issues at Boeing.

                How much is Boeing paying you to post this crap?

                • cooper_ganglia 1 year ago
                  After the Boeing whistleblower “killed himself”, I’ve just gotta assume anyone who has anything positive to say about Boeing either has a red dot on their forehead or a financial incentive (or both!).
                  • jmward01 1 year ago
                    Man, I really wish they were paying me but no, not a cent. I think it is just time that we stop allowing people to get away with panic as an unchecked response. The stats in the industry are incredibly clear. The article is about how clearly safe the industry is and how we are fixated on a statistically insignificant thing and I totally agree with it. If you deeply believe there is a massive issue with safety in the industry because a door came off then I highly urge you to look at other industries and apply the same level of scrutiny to them. We need the level of safety aviation has in cars, healthcare and industry. something like over 30k people died in cars in the US last year. Studies suggest hundreds of thousands of deaths a year due to medical malpractice and over a hundred thousand due to industrial air pollution alone. But I guess the 'severe' quality control issues at Boeing really do indicate that the aviation industry is in a safety crisis and the 0 deaths last year on major airlines completely back that up. Definitely no irrational panic involved when people go after a door issue for months in the aviation world but don't care about those 30+k road deaths or how massively terrible our healthcare stats are.
                  • CaptainOfCoit 1 year ago
                    > There 'could have been' a major disaster on any flight last year

                    One would think there is a slightly more risk of a major disaster for flights where the door plugs haven't been properly attached, compared to others. But I guess you've looked into the numbers in order to make the strong claims you make in your comment.

                    > can be right now so please stop panicking.

                    Just because people write about this whole thing doesn't mean people are panicking, so please stop trying to stop people from doing something they probably aren't even doing in the first place.

                    • KptMarchewa 1 year ago
                      I think there are two different issues: the maintenance and piloting standards have dramatically increased over last decades.

                      Meanwhile, people are afraid that the manufacturer standards which have been very high since the 80s are starting to slip, with very new planes having problems.

                      And to fixating at door issue... isn't MCAS debacle still relatively new?

                      • constantcrying 1 year ago
                        >The door thing was an issue but in reality it was an incredibly minor issue considering the scale of the industry involved and the incredible reliability we now take for granted.

                        No. This is a major issue, because it demonstrates that the safety protections which have been built into the industry can actually fail on such a basic level. There has been an enormous amount of work to try to make sure that Airplanes never miss critical components of their structure. Failing to install a bolt isn't one mistake it is dozens of mistakes which need to have happened and which show that the overall mistake rate has to be high.

                        If the door at failed at a different point, if the seating had been different, then there would have been deaths.

                        • jmward01 1 year ago
                          Actually, it wasn't. There is no perfect system. There is always some imperfect crack. To expect perfection and point and say the sky is falling when something minor happens is actually counterproductive. That attitude is likely to force the system to change and the current system's safety is a-m-a-z-i-n-g. Panic is likely to lead to forcing random change that actually could hurt the system's safety. I wish instead of constantly focusing on the rare safety issue the industry has we instead dug deep into what has enabled this industry to achieve this level of safety in the hopes we could apply it to the large number of vastly less successful industries out there. Cars, trains, industrial workplaces, etc etc. All of these could possibly benefit from the aviation industry if we could understand the factors that drove it to this level of safety.
                        • text0404 1 year ago
                          there absolutely were deaths on the prior iteration of the same model aircraft from the same company, in two separate incidents, only 5-6 years ago:

                          - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_610

                          - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_302

                          as OP said:

                          > I think the worry people have is that safety standards are slipping, when it comes to building airplanes, specifically Boeing building airplanes. This is not something that would be noticeable in an accident statistic while it is actually happening, yet it is an extremely serious matter for the safety of aviation in the future.

                        • User23 1 year ago
                          > self improvement of the industry

                          Credit is mostly due to the government here. The NTSB[1] has been a shining success.

                          And yes, hysteresis must be considered for transport safety.

                          [1] https://www.ntsb.gov/

                          • hurtuvac78 1 year ago
                            > It also should be considered [...] on chance

                            To be fair to the author, this is very much mentioned.

                            And yes, luck has played a role as well. We closed out 2023 with a near-perfect record, but not without a few close calls.

                            • hackernewds 1 year ago
                              yeah airline safety in a year can be a lagging indicator. and the airlines are safe due to the safety regulations being respected and issues being broadcasted rather than in spite of it
                            • jchw 1 year ago
                              The actual number of fatalities is a trailing metric, not a leading one, and it trails by years. Same for security incidents. Same for downtime.

                              Culture problems have a tendency of not showing themselves until things are extremely dire.

                              • Izkata 1 year ago
                                > To wit, according to the annual report just released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) 2023 goes down as one of the safest years in commercial aviation history. Not a single fatal accident was recorded involving a commercial jet. Not one.

                                > Combining jet and turboprop operations, IATA says there were 37 million commercial flights last year. Among those, the only deadly crash was that of an ATR turboprop in Nepal last January.

                                Someone both died and didn't die?

                                • terramex 1 year ago
                                  > Not a single fatal accident was recorded involving a commercial jet. Not one.

                                  > the only deadly crash was that of an ATR turboprop

                                  Turboprops are not jets.

                                  • 1 year ago
                                    • hackernewds 1 year ago
                                      the incident in Nepal was also determined to be due to intentional pilot malice. not to say the systems couldn't have been in place to prevent it.
                                      • alwa 1 year ago
                                        I’m not sure that’s correct, at least if you mean the determination that the official accident investigation reached [0]. Pilot error and insufficient training on the new approach (being flown for the first time into the new airport), but I don’t see anything in the report that suggested they maliciously wanted to die and kill their passengers. That seems like a pretty big accusation to bring to bear.

                                        Although if I remember correctly, didn’t the pilot become a pilot herself after she lost her husband, a pilot, in a crash 10 years prior?

                                        (Edit: it was 16 years rather than 10 [1]. I’d forgotten how tragic the whole situation was, and how sympathetic everybody involved.)

                                        [0] [PDF] https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/1/9N-ANC%20FINAL%20Report.p...

                                        [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64299882

                                    • beisner 1 year ago
                                      Turboprop is different from jet
                                      • beeeeerp 1 year ago
                                        Nepal can also be a different world for aviation to boot. They have some gnarly airports there.
                                        • Gare 1 year ago
                                          Also not the best safety record and practices. They are on the EU blacklist.
                                        • Izkata 1 year ago
                                          Ah, I missed that the line that mentions the report wasn't talking about the report as a whole. Sounded like the second line was getting its information from somewhere other than that report.
                                        • boolemancer 1 year ago
                                          I assume that an "ATR turboprop" does not count as a commercial jet.
                                        • AdrianB1 1 year ago
                                          Given the level of sophistication and automation in commercial planes, the technological advances makes it the default state to be safer and safer every year. It is like Newton's apple falling and reporting "the apple altitude decreased again" - it is obvious it should.

                                          At the same time, the incidents last year are not excusable. This is all the noise about, the quality control problems are inexcusable and having a safe year does not do anything to save face.

                                          • janice1999 1 year ago
                                            > the technological advances makes it the default state to be safer and safer every year.

                                            Technological advances also increase complexity which can increase risk in unforeseen ways. Here is a perfect example where a single action within a 180 millisecond window was almost enough to crash a plane [0].

                                            [0] https://youtu.be/UC9mItvA9T4

                                            • Gare 1 year ago
                                              I think you have misinterpreted the video. It was a pilot error to initiate go-around after the thrust reversers have been deployed. And software preventing engine to increase (reverse) thrust when it sensed that aircraft is no longer on the ground is what probably saved the day compared to a similar previous incident that resulted in a crash.

                                              Could software be made to handle it even better? Absolutely. But it's not a software error per se that caused this.

                                              • janice1999 1 year ago
                                                You're missing the fact the engines were left in different configurations because of a subtle timing difference between the ECUs. That left the plane in an unstable state. The pilots actions were not an error per se - the video even emphasises that it is not banned in Europe and pilots on that one model alone do it once a month.
                                            • bootlooped 1 year ago
                                              I think a reasonable fear is that long stretches of exceptional safety could breed complacency and cause aviation companies to feel like they can slack a bit on it.

                                              The same thing happened with vaccines to a large degree, right? A generation grows up without measles, and then they think maybe vaccinating against measles isn't really that important. After all, they never knew anybody who got it, how bad could it be?

                                              • AdrianB1 1 year ago
                                                That fear needs to exist all the time about everything. Aviation safety is one of many, food safety, health care, government in general, etc. Becoming complacent will start kill people again at some point. It is called entropy.
                                                • nobodyandproud 1 year ago
                                                  Nice analogy.

                                                  Successful public health and aviation both require both deep engineering & science, strong top-down policies and enforcement, and robust & knowledgeable on-the-ground personnel.

                                                  And of course a public bought-into all of this.

                                                  The closest I can think of-prior and surely because I’m a poor student of history—goes back to Roman aqueducts and roads, where so many things had to go right and maintained.

                                              • 1 year ago
                                                • dotcoma 1 year ago
                                                  In spite of Boeing.
                                                  • smt88 1 year ago
                                                    The incredible effectiveness of airline regulation shouldn't be understated.

                                                    Despite being a criminally negligent organization, Boeing still failed to kill anyone because of the FAA (their direct action and also airlines' fear of consequences).

                                                    • constantcrying 1 year ago
                                                      >Boeing still failed to kill anyone

                                                      By sheer luck. Loosing a door mid flight could have ended very differently.

                                                      • cooper_ganglia 1 year ago
                                                        Boeing failed to kill anyone sitting in one of their planes.

                                                        If you counted whistleblowers sitting in their truck in a hotel parking lot, this number increases to 1.

                                                        • photochemsyn 1 year ago
                                                          Isn't it the case that Boeing inspectors used to report to the FAA, and now they report to Boeing managers, so Boeing can have them fired if they raise too many red flags? This was due to legislation passed in 2004 IIRC, here's an overview:

                                                          https://www.5clpp.com/?p=4026

                                                          • lxgr 1 year ago
                                                            In the US.

                                                            And you're actually raising a good point here: Only US citizens get to vote on the US federal government, which controls FAA, yet many countries indirectly rely on the FAA as the primary regulator for Boeing, as far as I understand.

                                                            Maybe the regulators of a few large industrial nations or the EU have the size/staffing/funding and leverage necessary to make a difference (and that's still a few steps removed from the FAA!). Others (Ethiopa and Indonesia come to mind) are effectively at the mercy of the FAA.

                                                            • freedomben 1 year ago
                                                              when talking about the scale of the US federal government, I don't think average (non-wealthy, non-politically connected) US citizens have any more say than anybody else in the world. I would bet wealthy citizens of other countries have a lot more ability to affect the US federal government than average citizens. A tiny, statistically non-existent vote is entirely meaningless. Basically just symbolic of democratic ideals.
                                                              • SteveNuts 1 year ago
                                                                > And you're actually raising a good point here: Only US citizens get to vote on the US federal government, which controls FAA, yet many countries indirectly rely on the FAA as the primary regulator for Boeing

                                                                Except for when Boeing is allowed to regulate itself

                                                              • fourseventy 1 year ago
                                                                Except for the two Boeing planes that nose dived into the ground killing everyone onboard...
                                                            • ajross 1 year ago
                                                              Boeing is about half the signal, so no, absolutely because of Boeing. That the 737 MAX is extremely dangerous for a modern jetliner doesn't refute the clear truth that the 737 MAX is very safe in a historical context. It's a huge outlier precisely because the industry has done so well at this.
                                                              • Izkata 1 year ago
                                                                Didn't all of that happen this year?

                                                                Quick edit: But also the article is talking specifically about deaths, and as far as I recall no one died with the Boeing incidents. Granted the door plug one was probably pure luck (no one was sitting next to it).

                                                                • switch007 1 year ago
                                                                  2023 wasn't completely uneventful for Boeing and the max (from wikipedia):

                                                                  - January 13, China Southern Airlines returned the MAX to service (i.e. still grounded for a small part of 2023)

                                                                  - In April of 2023, it was revealed that US engineers had recommended grounding 737 Max immediately following the Ethiopian Airlines accident.

                                                                  - December 28, the FAA revealed that Boeing had asked airlines to check newer 737 MAX aircraft for a possible loose screw in the rudder control system. The FAA wants to "closely monitor" the targeted inspections and consider additional measures if further loose or missing components are discovered.

                                                                  • hinkley 1 year ago
                                                                    The first round of groundings seems to have ended in late 2020. The drama all started, as stated in another article:

                                                                    > Two years later, hundreds of Max planes were grounded worldwide after the crashes in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people.

                                                                    • smt88 1 year ago
                                                                      The planes have been dangerous for more than a year, though
                                                                      • tekla 1 year ago
                                                                        Still irrelevant for Hacker News hysteria
                                                                  • barryrandall 1 year ago
                                                                    How’s consumer confidence in aviation safety doing?
                                                                  • tuwtuwtuwtuw 1 year ago
                                                                    I am guessing many consumers considers aviation safety a broader topic than "fatal accidents" which this article focuses on.
                                                                    • sokoloff 1 year ago
                                                                      I'll also wager that consumers place "fatal accidents" in the high-order byte of overall safety comparisons across years.
                                                                    • edgineer 1 year ago
                                                                      Refreshing to hear a review of the statistics.
                                                                      • hackernewds 1 year ago
                                                                        is partly to be attributed how reliant on technology vs humans we are now with aviation? practically a plane could be flown without pilots
                                                                        • t0mas88 1 year ago
                                                                          Not really. Planes can't fly without pilots. Even flying a large jet with a single pilot instead of two would be very hard. It can be landed in an emergency (e.g. one pilot incapacitated), but it is hard work for the remaining pilot and requires some cooperation from ATC. Can't really do that with multiple aircraft at the same time.

                                                                          Even more so in case of adverse weather or any systems failures. It quickly becomes too much for one pilot, that's why only small jets are certified for single pilot operations.

                                                                        • rufus_foreman 1 year ago
                                                                          44,000 dead in car crashes in the US in 2023.
                                                                          • porphyra 1 year ago
                                                                            And then five people died after a commercial airliner hit an earthquake aid plane in Tokyo literally two days after 2023 ended.
                                                                            • binary132 1 year ago
                                                                              Gee, I dunno. Probably no reason, haha.
                                                                              • ibeckermayer 1 year ago
                                                                                [flagged]
                                                                                • lxgr 1 year ago
                                                                                  Boeing has been proudly outsourcing critical avionics software to contractors inexperienced with aviation and earning $9/hour [1].

                                                                                  But sure, they must have done that because of their race and gender, not because of the massive potential increase in profits.

                                                                                  [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39689516

                                                                                  • treyd 1 year ago
                                                                                    I didn't expect this ignorance on HN given the industry most of us work in.

                                                                                    Safety and quality are a product of systems, processes, and policies and not individual skills. Mistakes will always be made even by including cishet natively english speaking upper-middle class white men. No good manager should expect individuals to be able to account for issues all on their own.

                                                                                    In Boeing's case, the problems are very obviously management compromising quality by encouraging corner-cutting for reducing costs to increase profits. It worked for a while because Boeing had the redundancies in processes to catch errors before they had an impact, but eventually they compromises were too much. Tell me, what does this has to do with race and gender?

                                                                                    • AnimalMuppet 1 year ago
                                                                                      In particular, the critical bad decisions were made long before DEI was a thing.
                                                                                    • chasil 1 year ago
                                                                                      The people in these planes probably didn't feel perfectly safe.

                                                                                      https://avherald.com/

                                                                                      • pseudoramble 1 year ago
                                                                                        Sorry I'm unaware of what you're saying? Are you saying that pilots are being selected without meeting training requirements and licensing? That doesn't sound right and I must be missing your point.
                                                                                        • foldr 1 year ago
                                                                                          I think, reading between the lines, you are replying to a "blame wokeness for everything bad that happens" post. Being generous, it's about one order of magnitude more rational than blaming gays for earthquakes. But it's the same basic idea.
                                                                                      • wakawaka28 1 year ago
                                                                                        Does anyone actually believe this? Lol
                                                                                        • frabjoused 1 year ago
                                                                                          Do you prefer John Oliver anecdotes or numbers?
                                                                                          • wakawaka28 1 year ago
                                                                                            I don't like John Oliver. Anyway, I would like to know how many near misses there have been over time. Not just deadly crashes. We could have seen a decline in already-rare fatal crashes as all other types of crashes increase, and planes literally keep falling apart. I think this blogger is trolling with a hot take and/or pushing propaganda.
                                                                                            • frabjoused 1 year ago
                                                                                              It’s very easy to objectively see the improvement over time. Just google around and look at some charts from the 60s to today, preferably that relate accidents and fatalities per million flights so it’s properly scaled. Every chart you look at has improved remarkably. Doesn’t matter how many recent Boeing anecdotes you pull out, planes and regulations have improved and the result is in these numbers.