John Deere Dismissing 15% of Workforce
58 points by msisk6 11 months ago | 38 comments- ajross 11 months ago> As a depressed farm economy continues to roll on
Interestingly this is one of those things that gets spun as bad no matter which side of the argument you find yourself on. The effect here is deflation in food prices.
Here's a story from Feburary talking about the effect, but not making the connection: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-farm-income-s...
There was a HUGE SPIKE in farm income in 2021-22 to the tune of like 60% owing to the pandemic effects on prices (mostly due to transport and not agriculture per se, as I understand it). It was level in 2023 and is now crashing back to something approximating a baseline level.
Everyone complained like crazy about this and we had all those doomsday articles about inflation. Now it's reversing, and... it's still bad. Economics discussion can't win, pessimism rules.
As far as John Deere, it just looks to me like they staffed up too hard over the boom and are having to correct.
- jordanb 11 months agoIt's not necessary that lower farm income results in lower prices at the supermarket. For instance, the price of a chicken at the chicken farm is completely disconnected from the price of a chicken at the supermarket by the Tyson/JBS monopoly.
Food distribution is currently consolidating and rolling-up rapidly (ex: the Albertsons/Kroger merger). The result will be low farm income and high supermarket prices.
- ajross 11 months agoIt's clearly not "completely" disconnected, otherwise there would be zero volatility in supermarket prices. But again a price is a price not matter what layer of the market it sits at, and all prices are subject to market conditions. Freaking out about some subsampling of them as being "real" in/de/stag/whateverflation in an attempt to shoehorn whatever noisy data you have into a signal that confirms your priors just leads to the kind of nonsense logic that produced the analysis I quoted above.
- tuatoru 11 months ago> It's clearly not "completely" disconnected, otherwise there would be zero volatility in supermarket prices.
I understood that supermarkets are always changing prices semirandomly, so that consumers never really know what the price "should" be.
- tuatoru 11 months ago
- ajross 11 months ago
- TacticalCoder 11 months ago> ... and we had all those doomsday articles about inflation. Now it's reversing, and... it's still bad. Economics discussion can't win, pessimism rules.
The US did grow its public debt by 50%, from 22 trillion to 34 trillion in... Four years. +12 trillion in... Four. Years.
The cost of servicing the US debt is going to be the most important government spending two years from now.
US debt has to be something like 135% of the GDP now (roughly 100% public and 35% foreign).
Care to share some of your optimism on these issues?
- ajross 11 months agoThis has absolutely nothing to do with inflation arguments. But I'll engage anyway. Federal debt service costs as a percentage of GDP over time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYOIGDA188S
There was indeed a very large increase in 2020-21 due to pandemic assistance programs. But the actual cost of the debt remains about half of what it was in the mid-80's under the Reagan economy (where the absolute size of the debt was smaller but the interest rates required to service it were higher).
I think we came out of the 80's just fine. We'll survive this too.
- ajross 11 months ago
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- bbunix 11 months agoThe other huge spike was in nitrogen-based fertilizer that went up something like 3x ($0.40/lb -> $1.20/lb) during the pandemic
- jordanb 11 months ago
- JaimeThompson 11 months agoI'm guessing that few, if any, of the leadership will lose their jobs in this event. It's also very likely the current leadership will receive additional compensation to keep themselves in their current position since they are so knowledgeable and skilled.
- strict9 11 months agoThose in leadership positions are usually offered bonuses for successfully executing key initiatives such as cost cutting:
>The manufacturer is also moving skid steer and compact track loader manufacturing units from Dubuque, Iowa, to Mexico to curb its manufacturing costs.
- matrix87 11 months agoI don't understand how these "critical decision-makers" can do that and not be afraid to go out in public
Or maybe they are, who knows? Maybe they hire private security?
- indigo0086 11 months agoBecause casual barbarism or threats of how companies do business is not compatible with civil society
- indigo0086 11 months ago
- yieldcrv 11 months agoout of curiosity, is there a different outcome you would prefer?
I can appreciate snark and irony, but many of the comments here are of the same vein.
I think the expectation of more money = reward for behavior, less money = punishment is a flawed expectation. I dont see any correlation to that, I dont see any reason why there should be a correlation to that, I’m familiar with the mentality but prosperity preaching is a form of control not an economic theory.
- talldayo 11 months agoThe FTC had been bordering on suing John Deere for years now. They (the executives) knew they were acting illegally, and persisted with the intent of turning a quick buck. The FTC really ought to make an example out of them; subpeona JD for all meeting minutes related to discussing their repair pricing. Anyone caught consciously promoting a pricing scheme they know is illegal should constitute a white-collar crime with upwards of a decade-long prison sentence.
I'm absolutely tired of pretending like there's simply nothing we can do to discourage this behavior. Wake up the regulators and make the companies like John Deere regret trying to abuse the market.
- nine_zeros 11 months ago> out of curiosity, is there a different outcome you would prefer?
I am not OP but yes - I would prefer a different outcome - specifically a cut in compensation for the CEO, the executive and upper management assigned to execute this plan. Sink with the ship philosophy.
I recognize this cannot be accomplished with current corporate structures but there is a reason why calls for unionization are rising.
- 11 months ago
- JaimeThompson 11 months agoLeadership should resign or take drastic pay cuts if they are unable to execute the jobs they are paid so much to do.
Holding them accountable for their failures isn't too much of an ask.
- talldayo 11 months ago
- strict9 11 months ago
- yieldcrv 11 months agosurprisingly little movement in the stock afterhours, is it halted pending news?
- itomato 11 months agoWhat is the correlation with their choice to use curved windshields and otherwise stifle right to repair?
- SideQuark 11 months agoZero.
Unless you can rationalize that into causing a large drop in ag markets (which is much more likely the results of trade wars, resulting govt bailouts for farmers, and the resulting issues that always fallout from such ham-handed trade wars).
- mattgrice 11 months agojohn deere cab windows have been curved since at least 1975 with the sound-gard cab
- SideQuark 11 months ago
- the_real_cher 11 months agoAre there any measures that show objectively how the middle class is being destroyed?
seeing layoff after layoff after layoff over the past few years, yet theyre selling the economy as GREAT because theres a ton more low paid jobs and part time jobs.
- SideQuark 11 months ago> Are there any measures that show objectively how the middle class is being destroyed?
If by destroyed, you mean shrinking from 61% in 1971 to 51% of households now, then yes, there is data for that.
But that 10% decline was ~8% moving into above middle class and ~2% moving below middle class.
So yes, the middle class shrunk, because more people got richer. I'd also hardly call it destroyed - more like the % of people in various age groups has shifted, and people stay in education longer (meaning a higher % below middle), but those people over a lifetime will likely also become above middle class.
When you do the simple math that in 1970 about 25% of 18-24 were in college, and that % is now around 50%, and you factor that in, you can compute (or check Census/BLS reports for the same) to see outside people staying in school longer, the middle class is shrinking due to people getting richer.
I guess things aren't at negative as you imply.
https://www.newsweek.com/america-middle-class-shrinking-1913...
- nytesky 11 months agoI think the perception of the middle class shrinking is that it is
1) true there are more people in lower middle class than before and less in the middle
2) even for those who moved “up” to upper middle class, the buying power has been stripped by rapidly rising housing prices, medical, and education costs. So even with a high income, disposable income has likely decreased. Those items have far exceeded inflation for years
3) much of the ability of families to move to UMC has been on the backs of two working parents. Which itself entails expensive childcare (often more than the mortgage), and a huge decrease in family leisure time and sleep. But with those rising expenses in 2), a single earner is not feasible.
In general, be wary of Newsweek articles, this is not the magazine we grew up with: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-newsweek-has-gone-down-the...
- SideQuark 11 months ago> true there are more people in lower middle class than before and less in the middle
Yes, because as I pointed out more people stay in college longer ( poor now but not for long), more people retire early due to good stock markets (simply read BLS/Census data).
Here's a simple way to check the rough argument: Suppose on avg it takes 5 years to post HS education. A working career is about 50 years. So 10% of a college student is spent poor with near certainty.
25% of people went in 1970. That accounts for (1/4)*(1/10) = 2.5% of the population being in poverty, yet they will mostly do quite well over a lifetime.
Now about 50% go to college. That's a 2.5% increase in the poverty rate, yet in reality people over a lifetime are going to be richer.
Do the same thing to retirees, to early retirement due to stock growth, early retirement from COVID where many people also decided to retire early since they could afford it, and your increase in the poor evaporates.
Also, US poverty rate puts one in the top 15% of world incomes, so our poverty rate is a pretty nice income. And poverty is measured pre-govt transfers, which provides a lot more income.
I just gave you the stats, and you can check them. Stop repeating things for which I pointed out solid and provably correct reasons your interpretation is wrong. If you want to refute there are more people in college, or that people aging into retirement or retiring early are not increasing then do so.
Simply do the math, or read Census or BLS data.
> the buying power has been stripped by
Inflation adjusted median wages has risen significantly [1]. So no, buying power has not been stripped. When you pick only a few items but ignore the overall purchasing power of an income you are making reasoning errors. This is also true of you break it down by decile or quintile - BLS/FRED/Census again has all the data you need. You continually cherry pick the extreme edges of things and ignore the actual data for the entire thing.
> much of the ability of families to move to UMC has been on the backs of two working parents
Individual income, as shown above, has greatly increased relative to inflation. The reason people use two incomes is they have more than twice as much stuff as 1970: median house sizes have more than doubled, more cars per family, more TVs, massively more entertainment expenses, more of everything. If a family wanted to live like 1970 then one income now is more than enough (provably so, since again, inflation adjusted wages since 1970 have increased significantly).
>In general, be wary of Newsweek articles
Nothing in that article is different than you can source yourself from the root data sources for all this knowledge: Census, BLS, FRED, and a few other stats gathering agencies. If you dispute the stats in the article, present your stats and sources. Stop pretending cherry picked anecdotes replaces analysis of the entire dataset.
- SideQuark 11 months ago
- samarthr1 11 months agoI would expect that a more charitable reading of GP would say that people from the lower class have not come in the middle class as much as they had earlier?
At any rate, imo for stability to exist, every generation must _feel_ better off than the previous on average.
- SideQuark 11 months ago> that people from the lower class have not come in the middle class as much as they had earlier
When famous economist Chetty et. al. [1] at the Harvard Equal Opportunity project went to prove this, they were surprised to find it's not true. They obtained never before access to lifetime IRS income statements to see how people moved over time, and they found that social mobility has not changed from around 1960 on. (Other studies had already shown this to be true for the first half of the 20th century). Other studies since theirs have obtain similar results. Here's a summary article about their results [2].
[1] https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C15&q=che...
[2] https://www.cfr.org/blog/new-harvard-study-us-social-mobilit...
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- _3u10 11 months agoThe world was stable for a loooong time with no noticeable increase in standard of living.
- the_real_cher 11 months agoYeah this is exactly what Im asking to be honest.
Thanks for clarifying this.
How difficult is it to escape the lower class.
- SideQuark 11 months ago
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- nytesky 11 months ago
- talldayo 11 months agoIn this case, John Deere has skated by with incredibly exploitative business practices for years. Their insular repair scheme has led to an over-hiring of official licensed support engineers that shouldn't persist in a competitive market.
This is a broader trend in the US economy that will self-correct as regulators become less recalcitrant.
- _3u10 11 months agoFinally, those mechanics were getting paid too much. I’m glad someone is shutting down this practice so their wages can be lowered.
- talldayo 11 months agoThe mechanics are not independents, in this case. They are specifically trained, retained and dispatched by John Deere, for paying John Deere customers. These are salaried people that are more or less employed as part of a scheme to prevent price-competitive repair from existing, not mom-and-pop wholesalers fixing a radiator.
- talldayo 11 months ago
- _3u10 11 months ago
- 42lux 11 months agoTRUE LOVE IS POSSIBLE ONLY IN THE NEXT WORLD -- FOR NEW PEOPLE
IT IS TOO LATE FOR US
WREAK HAVOC ON THE MIDDLE CLASS
- Disco Elysium
- _3u10 11 months agoYes, go into numbeo and look at the purchasing power indexes.
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/rankings_current.jsp?d...
For example I live in Asuncion, Paraguay where the median wage is $420/month.
Vancouver, Canada has a purchasing power index that is 220% as high. Eg. The average person in Vancouver makes as much as a Paraguayan making $840/month living in Asuncion.
You could also compare NY to Cali, Colombia where NY has a score of 100 (by definition) and Cali has a score of 48. So the average Colombian is 1/2 as wealthy as the average New Yorker, or 1/3 the average Austinite with a score of 170.
The American middle class is doing amazingly well by moving to where they are exporting everyone’s jobs to. They double their income by not paying taxes anymore, and then compound that with a 1/3rd cost of living.
- SideQuark 11 months ago
- mupuff1234 11 months agoAnd all while CEO salaries just seem to go higher and higher.
- ryandrake 11 months agoYou have to give CEOs extreme compensation in order to reward them for their great work. Plus, those yachts and fourth homes aren't going to buy themselves.
- ryandrake 11 months ago
- nickpeterson 11 months agoI’m sure the CEO will write a nice Deere John letter to employees.
- petermcneeley 11 months agounderrated comment.
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- petermcneeley 11 months ago
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