Air missile accident emerges as probable cause of Azerbaijan E190tragedy
218 points by bratao 6 months ago | 157 comments- zmachinaz 6 months agoJust zooming into the tail section photo one can find on main stream media shows very suspicious signs of possible shrapnel hit ...
- mrtksn 6 months agoThe shrapnel damage is pretty much established as there are multiple videos from inside the plane during this flight prior to the crash and you can see shrapnel damage on the fuselage. The survivors are also confirming it, and report that there was a bang(which might be confused for bird strike).
The question is, who shot the plane? This part is pure speculation at this point.
- mlyle 6 months ago> The question is, who shot the plane? This part is pure speculation at this point.
It doesn't seem to be too difficult to put together what is likely. Grozny was under active drone attack at the time with air defenses working. And Russian air defense crews are pretty infamous for the jumpy trigger fingers at this point.
- ummonk 6 months agoAnd notably, the "drones" were civilian propeller aircraft fitted out to fly an unmanned suicide trajectory. I'm not sure they would even look all that distinguishable on a SAM operator's screen from a small jet like this.
- WeylandYutani 6 months agoMy brother is flying to Japan tomorrow and we were talking about how the flight has gotten longer because of all the active war zones that they can't fly over any more.
- ummonk 6 months ago
- wat10000 6 months agoIs there anyone besides Russia who would have even been capable of shooting it down?
- eastbound 6 months agoYes, who shoots down entire civilian aircrafts?
Itavia 870 comes to mind: In the 80ies, a fighter jet was being smuggled to Gaddafi by hiding under a civilian aircraft, and the speculation is that France shot the convoy, killing 81. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itavia_Flight_870
- londons_explore 6 months agoWell considering the incident happened in Kazakhstan, one might imagine Kazakhstan has air defences too...
- eastbound 6 months ago
- mlyle 6 months ago
- EA-3167 6 months agoIn particular some of the damage has a "linear" quality that could plausibly come from a continuous rod warhead, which would be typical for a system like Pantsir. If as the Russians claim, it was a bird-strike, you wouldn't expect debris from the failure of the engine to make a pattern like that on the tail, unless the entire engine body broke apart.
Likewise, it didn't look like it was on a glide path, but rather that as discussed the hydraulics failed and they has to use thrust vectoring to fly. Obviously for very fine correction on final approach that becomes difficult, and the result was what we saw. All of that is consistent with a missile.
- mrtksn 6 months ago
- imglorp 6 months agoBlancolirio goes into some depth on the hydraulic systems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J04wUKZUCI&pp=ygULYmxhbmNvb...
- rodary 6 months agoThis is odd.
I'm from the area, near Grozny. If Grozny were under fog, there are at least 10 airports nearby (Makhachkala, Vladikavkaz, Nalchik, Minvody, Rostov, Krasnodar etc) in the North Caucasus. Why would you fly east, across the Caspian Sea, toward Kazakhstan?
- appreciatorBus 6 months agoObviously just speculation but if one was just fired upon, yet still in one piece and at least somewhat in control, a pilot might decide braving a longer diversion over a body of water to get away from the area, might be the safest course of action.
- dralley 6 months agoAlso if you have control issues and a forced depressurization it might be best to avoid obstructions (like the Caucasus mountains) and significant course adjustments.
But from what I'm seeing the actual answer is that they were denied landing clearance, which is a bit suspicious.
- dralley 6 months ago
- phire 6 months agoThey reported a dual GPS failure.
My guess, they picked an airport they knew well, that they could probably navigate to with nothing more than a compass and landmarks. And if they suspected GPS jamming (personally, a dual GPS failure over Russia would be my first guess) they would be biased towards an airport far away from an active war zone.
I am curious why they didn't divert back to their departure airport at Baku. It's roughly the same distance and surely they knew that airport even better, and could just follow the coastline back. Maybe by the time they had the plane under control they were already much closer to Aktau.
- quink 6 months agoIf I was a pilot flying into an at-war country I’d want my alternate to point in a different direction, the exact opposite course of the war zone ideally. Which this pretty much is.
And, to further that point, multiple airports you listed here are currently closed because of that war.
- selimthegrim 6 months agoMakhachkala has been taking international flights.
- quink 6 months agoI just checked the transcript I've seen floating out there, the first alternate was Baku, i.e. their departure airport. Then Mineralnye Vody (which is some way to the west), then Makhachkala, then they seemed to go far to the east, so while I think the first option was Baku - matching what I said, the list of options pretty quickly became 'anywhere'. What a harrowing flight.
- quink 6 months ago
- TheGreatAIPurge 6 months ago[flagged]
- IAmGraydon 6 months agoAnyone else notice an influx of these new accounts in the last couple of years that start rapidly spamming inflammatory replies that seem to be trying to incite arguments (look at this ^ account's comments in the last hour)? HN is a bastion of mostly western, intelligent discourse. I'm really starting to wonder - is it under attack?
- IAmGraydon 6 months ago
- selimthegrim 6 months ago
- ivan_gammel 6 months agoThe entire region was the zone of active air defence and Vladikavkaz was surely not an option given the drone strike that damaged a shopping mall there. My only question here is why there were any civilian flights at the moment. They should have been diverted.
- Waterluvian 6 months agoAny time something makes no sense from this region of the world, there’s often a ridiculous Soviet style decision behind it.
https://bsky.app/profile/dandrezner.bsky.social/post/3le7jr7...
- rasz 6 months agohttps://caliber.az/en/post/preliminary-investigation-azal-ai...
"Kill and hide. Azerbaijani officials tell local media that Russia hit flight J2-8243 with an anti-aircraft missile and then jammed electronics and _denied permission to land in three airports, steering the damaged plane into the Caspian Sea so that it would crash there and Russia’s role would never be discovered_."
- 6 months ago
- tiahura 6 months agoMountains
- goodcanadian 6 months agoGrozny was not under fog.
- appreciatorBus 6 months ago
- cynicalsecurity 6 months ago> There is a possibility that the Azerbaijani passenger plane flying from Baku to Grozny was shot down by Russian air defense.
> At least, the holes in the tail section look like traces of the striking elements of an anti-aircraft missile.
> Surviving passenger of the plane Subhonkul Rakhimov said that the pilots tried to land the plane in Grozny three times: "The third time, something exploded. There was an explosion - I seemed to me that it was not inside the plane."
- ArturZhdanN 6 months agorussia is a terrorist state
- belter 6 months ago[flagged]
- bigfatkitten 6 months agoNew DNI is basically the Kremlin spokeswoman.
- TheGreatAIPurge 6 months ago[flagged]
- TheGreatAIPurge 6 months ago
- whamlastxmas 6 months agoThis is really boring, tiresome hyperbole
- llamaimperative 6 months agoIt might be "technically probably not true," but no it's not hyperbole. If anything it's an understatement. Actually what the incoming administration did is publicly asked adversarial foreign intelligence services to hack and disrupt the election campaign of an American political opponent.
And then those intelligence services actually did just that pretty much the same day.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-asked-russia-to-...
- darthrupert 6 months agoPlease explain, as this is not obvious at all.
- llamaimperative 6 months ago
- oceanplexian 6 months agoThank god. I remember the outgoing administration bragging about the fact that they haven’t held talks with Putin since the start of the war.
Maybe now diplomacy can happen and thousands of lives can be saved.
- llamaimperative 6 months agoAlright Neville, let’s get you to bed
- realusername 6 months ago> Maybe now diplomacy can happen and thousands of lives can be saved.
Diplomacy, like the time Macron came to Russia to stop the war and Putin told him the war would never happen. This kind of diplomacy?
- roenxi 6 months agoWe can only hope. Unfortunately there are some disturbing parallels to WWI - there is a sizeable contingent in the US who won't admit they made a mistake on this one. It'll be like the Germans all over again, a big well armed population who don't understand that they'll lose even more if they stir up a big conflict. Even if Trump manages to put a lid on the current conflict I'm not hopeful it'll be enough to pacify the warmongers even in the medium term. There is a lot of work to be done. It has been unreal to watch the US muck up European security so badly. They are now also in a really bad position vs. China, they've secured it a well resourced ally to the north for no reason at all.
It is no mystery how Trump outmanoeuvres these people, they have the strategic acumen of a stunned fish.
- llamaimperative 6 months ago
- bigfatkitten 6 months ago
- ganeshkrishnan 6 months ago[flagged]
- speakfreely 6 months ago[flagged]
- TheGreatAIPurge 6 months ago[flagged]
- tiahura 6 months agoDidn’t the US Navy just shoot one of its own down yesterday? Bleep happens.
- Mawr 6 months agoMilitary incidents are very different. While all civilian planes carry transponders that identify them as such [1], military planes usually don't for obvious reasons, so they're much easier to misidentify as hostile.
- closewith 6 months agoIFF is a transponder system that's significantly more advanced and reliable than civilian aeronautical transponders.
- shepherdjerred 6 months agoAren't there systems like this instead? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identification_friend_or_foe
- closewith 6 months ago
- bpodgursky 6 months agoThe US Navy immediately announced what happened. Would you like to take bets on whether Russia fesses up to this one?
- Mawr 6 months ago
- belter 6 months ago
- echelon 6 months agoThere are videos of the crashed tail section that show shrapnel damage.
https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1hm0ijm/another_a...
There are videos filmed from within the cabin by the passengers showing shrapnel piercing clothing, limbs, seats, and more before the plane crashes.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1871952188383309872 (Holes in life vests)
https://www.reddit.com/r/world24x7hr/comments/1hm6prb/seats_... (Shrapnel damage)
https://www.reddit.com/r/TerrifyingAsFuck/comments/1hm4mf0/f... (Survivor before the plane crashes.)
(There are better videos, but I can't seem to find them again.)
There are reports that the plane was forced to divert course and fly over water after being hit. They were close to landing but were forced to reroute in the middle of their emergency.
More videos:
https://www.reddit.com/r/TerrifyingAsFuck/comments/1hlx7tc/c... (Crash. Other videos from other angles exist elsewhere online.)
https://www.reddit.com/r/world24x7hr/comments/1hm2ynv/shocki... (Tail section after crash)
https://www.reddit.com/r/ThatsInsane/comments/1hlxm7i/surviv... (Survivors exiting the tail section)
https://www.reddit.com/r/world24x7hr/comments/1hm7poq/miracl... (Survivor who filmed prior to the crash.)
I'll edit my comment with sources shortly.
- quink 6 months agoThis whole thing feels more and more like a terrible nightmarish mash-up between MH17 and UA232. Every indication so far is that the flight crew here are absolute heroes for bringing down the plane as well as they did and it's likely that they should be remembered as heroically saving these lives, even if not their own.
- rasz 6 months agomore recent example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Wagner_Group_plane_crash
- rasz 6 months ago
- viraptor 6 months agoChecking out the video, it's amazing anyone survived that one. The construction of the planes is really impressive.
- Qem 6 months agoIt's an Embraer E190: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E-Jet_family
- TheGreatAIPurge 6 months ago[flagged]
- TheGreatAIPurge 6 months ago
- dralley 6 months agoIt's actually not terribly uncommon for crashes like this to be survivable, it just comes down to how shallow the decline ends up being and whether part of the fuselage snaps off and can get away from the burning fuel.
- Qem 6 months ago
- jiggawatts 6 months agoA turbine blade or a few coming off can have the same effect as a bomb going off near the plane.
The pieces would tear through the plane like shrapnel from a weapon.
Military anti air missiles tend to use continuous rods to slice planes in half instead of fragmentation warheads that leave small holes. The aim is to sever control lines, not merely to puncture.
- mrtksn 6 months agoTurbine blades puncturing the tail section? I'm not convinced.
https://a.dropoverapp.com/cloud/download/8a578eea-0de8-4504-...
Unconfined engine failures do the fuselage damage in the proximity of the engine: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187775032...
- penultimatename 6 months agoSeveral anti-aircraft systems can and do use fragmentation warheads. The BUK that shot down MH17 used one and the impact patterns are strikingly similar. Take a look at the “Reconstruction” section in this: https://libraryonline.erau.edu/online-full-text/ntsb/miscell...
- MoreMoore 6 months agoThe Russian Buk, S-300 and S-400 largely use missiles with blast fragmentation.
For example, see the SAMS section here: https://www.gichd.org/fileadmin/uploads/gichd/Publications/G...
- talldayo 6 months ago> A turbine blade or a few coming off can have the same effect as a bomb going off near the plane.
Not in any passenger jet Embraer would get caught dead making. To my knowledge, most jet engines that are parallel to passenger sections require cowling that is reinforced to withstand a blade going loose.
- jemmyw 6 months agoThey did in the past but they are designed now to disintegrate without taking the rest of the plane with them. Not that something unusual couldn't happen, but the engines are tested on this very thoroughly, based on previous accidents. Even when it has gone wrong in recent times it hasn't been catastrophic.
- morkalork 6 months agoHere's another incident you can compare against:
https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1hm0nf7/an_il22_t...
- gpderetta 6 months agoBoth engines were running at the time of impact as apparently the plane was being maneuvered via differential thrust.
- mrtksn 6 months ago
- quink 6 months ago
- 6 months ago
- ahmedfromtunis 6 months agoIn a weird coincidence, this morning I watched an old video about the Iranian airliner downed by a US missile in the Persian gulf. These accidents are just horrible.
- lutusp 6 months ago> " ... as the Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft was approaching to land as scheduled."
Not as scheduled. The aircraft was diverted because of unacceptable weather at its primary destination -- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwl1e6895qo : "The plane was en route to Grozny in Russia but it was diverted due to fog, the airline told the BBC."
Just saying, not excusing a hostile takedown, if that's what happened.
Diversion due to weather is a possibility anticipated by pilots, who normally carry extra fuel to accommodate the possibility of a diversion.
Ironically, because of the advent of drone attacks, a small aircraft like the Embraer 190 is more likely to be mistaken for hostile, compared to a full-size airliner.
- lutusp 6 months agoFrom my earlier post:
> Ironically, because of the advent of drone attacks, a small aircraft like the Embraer 190 is more likely to be mistaken for hostile, compared to a full-size airliner.
From CNN today (https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/26/asia/kazakhstan-plane-crash-q...) : "Russia may have downed Azerbaijani jet after confusing it for Ukrainian drone, US official says."
- closewith 6 months agoThe 190 is a small airliner, but definitely not a small aircraft.
- lutusp 6 months agoTo avoid confusion I made sure to compare it to a full-size airliner. Interestingly, the aircraft's comparatively small size may have determined its fate (https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/26/asia/kazakhstan-plane-crash-q...) : "Russia may have downed Azerbaijani jet after confusing it for Ukrainian drone, US official says."
- lutusp 6 months ago
- lutusp 6 months ago
- brnt 6 months agoIf I plot a line between Azerbaijan and Grozny, even if I go around the Caucasus over the Caspian, crashing in Kazakhstan seems way, way off.
- dilyevsky 6 months agoIt diverted to Aktau after getting hit (by birds allegedly, but really - SAM). All other flights got diverted to Aktau too on that day.
- brnt 6 months agoWhy that far? It's at least twice further from either beginning or destination than those are apart themselves.
- appreciatorBus 6 months agoIf the pilots were aware that they had been hit by anti-aircraft defenses, and that they were in at least partial control of the aircraft, they might have concluded they were better off getting as far away as possible, just in case the AA operators try again.
- wat10000 6 months agoSeems like the plane was barely controllable. That may have just been the direction they were able to maintain.
- dilyevsky 6 months agoIf it got hit over Makhachkala it’s closer to Aktau - just over the Caspian. Maybe it’s easier to land there with busted controls too
- rasz 6 months agoSo it crashed into the sea leaving no evidence or live witnesses.
- appreciatorBus 6 months ago
- brnt 6 months ago
- londons_explore 6 months agoThere are reports of GPS jamming in the area (presumably as part of the Ukraine war). It seems plausible the pilots got lost.
Also, the time between the 'bird strike' and the crash is 20+ minutes, so they might have been trying to fly towards an airport with a larger runway or better emergency crews. Or maybe just an airport where repair crew were stationed to fix whatever was wrong with the plane.
- margalabargala 6 months agoDoubtful. The Caspian Sea is a pretty unmistakeable landmark, even from high altitude, which the pilots would have seen.
I think it was more likely that that happened to be the direction the plane was pointing when it got hit by the missile and lost control surfaces, so that is where the pilots went.
- margalabargala 6 months ago
- dilyevsky 6 months ago
- 6 months ago
- TechSquidTV 6 months agoDon't worry. I'm sure we'll do nothing about it. Again.
- ralph84 6 months agoWhy should “we” have anything to do with a flight between Azerbaijan and Russia that crashed in Kazakhstan?
- brookst 6 months agoIsn’t there a saying about triumph of evil and good people doing nothing?
- ralph84 6 months agoOk, well you’ll have to help me out with your good vs. evil decoder ring because all three of those countries are allies with each other so I’m still not clear who we’re supposed to be white knighting for here.
- kerland 6 months agoWhat are the options? The war in Ukraine is a land war of attrition. They need more soldiers. Many Ukraninians evade military service and are instead refugees in the EU.
Sending NATO troops to do their work seems strange, especially considering that we are talking about a relatively small piece of land in Eastern Ukraine. And no, Putin will not go for Lisboa if he still does not manage to occupy the whole of Donetsk.
Do you blame NATO for not recapturing North Korea?
- ralph84 6 months ago
- TechSquidTV 6 months agoAnything to let them get away with it again.
- brookst 6 months ago
- selivanovp 6 months ago[flagged]
- londons_explore 6 months agoTeam america, world police?
Or Team America, child-minder?
- ralph84 6 months ago
- madihaa 6 months agoI've never seen such a clear plane crash, shocking
- llamaimperative 6 months agoRussia: "Why does the world view us as either malicious or incompetent?"
Also Russia: Consistently fails to shoot down military aircraft and missiles, consistently shoots down passenger jets, consistently lies about both
- mmastrac 6 months agoNot a great couple of decades for civilian air travel near Russian airspace, that's for sure.
- pinewurst 6 months agoIt’s not ‘either or’, it’s ‘and’.
- djaouen 6 months agoI'm not saying they are not both, but there is definitely another reason lol
- djaouen 6 months ago
- LtWorf 6 months ago
- quink 6 months agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007 would surely be a bit more on the nose.
Especially since rt.com's only above-the-fold mention is "Russia-bound airliner crashes in ex-_Soviet_ state (VIDEO)". Nope, they don't need to use the word 'Kazakhstan', the 50% longer, much less descriptive but much more telling 'ex-Soviet state' is the one they're chosen.
- quink 6 months agoThere's a second mention above the fold on rt.com now.
"Putin extends condolences over plane crash in ex-Soviet state".
They're literally a parody of themselves. Like, what's the implication here: Shame about the accident, none of this would have happened if we were all still together in a single nation led by us?
- quink 6 months ago
- squarefoot 6 months agoThat one is completely unrelated to Russia, but sparked a lot of theories nonetheless due to the number of strange deaths hitting people among those who were somehow related to the activities in the Mediterranean sea that night. That includes unclear strange suicides among military personnel and two of the three pilots colliding at the Ramstein airbase disaster in 1988.
https://www-giannibarbacetto-it.translate.goog/2023/09/03/st...
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- quink 6 months ago
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- flag_this_too 6 months ago[flagged]
- yakshaving_jgt 6 months ago
- yakshaving_jgt 6 months ago
- mmastrac 6 months ago
- Kerzo 6 months ago[flagged]
- lopkeny12ko 6 months ago[flagged]
- morkalork 6 months agoIs that you Alex Jones?
- morkalork 6 months ago
- NotYourLawyer 6 months ago[flagged]
- paganel 6 months agoThe "orcs" being who?
- 05 6 months ago> Orc (Cyrillic: орк, romanised: ork), plural orcs (Russian and Ukrainian: орки), is a pejorative commonly used by many Ukrainians to refer to a Russian soldier participating in the Russian-Ukrainian War and Russian citizens who support the aggression of Russia against Ukraine.
- tetromino_ 6 months agoLet's call a spade a spade. "Orc" is a dehumanizing term that the Ukrainian military propaganda invented and popularized to make it psychologically easier for their soldiers to shoot at Russians. Because they are not dropping a grenade from a drone on a human, they are just dropping a grenade on an orc, on a monster from a video game.
For Americans in the audience, "Orc" belongs to the same category as "Jap", "Gook", "Sandn**r", and all similar dehumanizing terms that American soldiers have used to make it psychologically easier to shoot and bomb their enemies.
- tetromino_ 6 months ago
- NotYourLawyer 6 months agoRussian soldiers.
- likeabatterycar 6 months agoOrcas. Nothing hath fury like an ill-tempered whale.
- buildsjets 6 months agoI’m pretty sure it’s is a shortened form of Horcasitas, from Juan Vicente de Güemes Padilla Horcasitas y Aguayo, 2nd Count of Revillagigedo, the Viceroy of New Spain who sent an exploration expedition under Francisco de Eliza to the Pacific Northwest in 1791.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Vicente_de_G%C3%BCemes,_2...
- buildsjets 6 months ago
- 05 6 months ago
- paganel 6 months ago
- neom 6 months agoI'm not sure if i'm reading this correctly or not, but the telegraph seems to report that the oxygen tank exploded? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/25/azerbaijan...
- inamberclad 6 months agoI can't read through the paywall, but the numerous pictures of the skin with the metal folded in are a pretty dead giveaway that there was an explosion nearby that crippled the aircraft
- neom 6 months agoHere is another one, but, looks like RT is ultimately the source for both the articles so... hmmmm...right...
https://www.news18.com/world/oxygen-tank-inside-azerbaijan-a...
(news18 is CNN in India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNN-News18)
- buildsjets 6 months agoWhy not consider deleting the disinformation you chose to share?
- buildsjets 6 months ago
- neom 6 months ago
- inamberclad 6 months ago