The Democrats Are in Denial About 2024

13 points by apsec112 3 months ago | 34 comments
  • mindcrime 3 months ago
    I'm very much not a Democrat or a Republican, and in many ways I don't give a shit what the Democrats do. But in the vein of "competition is good" and believing that a moderately heathy Democratic party is valuable as a counterweight to oppose the GOP, here's what I'd suggest the Democrats do:

    1. Run candidates who are likeable and more importantly, likeable by most Americans. No arrogant "smarter than thou", preachy, judgmental types. Run people who are intelligent and ethical, yes, but with a folksy, down-to-earth side.

    2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance and embrace the 2nd Amendment as being just as important as every other part of the Bill of Rights.

    3. Stop focusing so much on identity politics. Yes, sure, continue to stand for equality and inclusiveness. But don't make gender politics, trans-politics, race-politics, etc. your lynchpin issues.

    4. Reclaim your historical "anti-war party" status.

    5. Don't be so abstract. Bring things down to a level that can appeal to the "everyman". Ex: protecting the environment. Don't just talk about "protecting the environment" in the abstract, as though everybody universally values that (even if you believe they should). Instead, talk about protecting the lakes and creeks that people fish in, the gamelands they hunt in, the marshes and bays where so much of our seafood grows, etc.

    6. Go more in the direction of the Blue Dog[1] Democrats in general.

    [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition

    • ThrowawayR2 3 months ago
      Zero should be to make copious promises about fixing the economy, even if it's a stretch, to blue collar workers and the rest of the working classes and pinning the current economic woes on the other party, even if it's a stretch, as much as they can.

      Democrats talk a big game about being on the side of the working classes but that hasn't been true for 20+ years and voters know it. The polls show they know it too.

      • watwut 3 months ago
        I mean, republicans are even worst for the working class. So, I would argue that what is show is that your actual record on economy does not matter, only big claims do.
        • disgruntledphd2 3 months ago
          At least they talk about stuff that the post-industrial working class care about. Like, Trump may not succeed in bringing back manufacturing, but the Democrats never even talked about it (even though Biden did a bunch of good stuff there).

          And fundamentally, the coastal states don't have enough votes for the Democrats to win a majority, so they need to start figuring out how to win in the rest of the country.

          Personally, I'd have removed the filibuster in the Senate to fix gerrymandering, as that makes the elections much fairer and takes away the ability of state legislatures to make ridiculous boundaries that are always gonna vote for one party. Hilariously enough, it was the old school Republicans who started this, which has lead to them being replaced by MAGA loyalists.

      • OneDeuxTriSeiGo 3 months ago
        > 3. Stop focusing so much on identity politics. Yes, sure, continue to stand for equality and inclusiveness. But don't make gender politics, trans-politics, race-politics, etc. your lynchpin issues.

        Democrats didn't run on identity politics. Republicans ran on claiming that Democrats run on identity politics. Democrats aren't the ones spending millions of dollars on campaign ads about trans people or people of color. That's republicans.

        That's the problem. No matter how hard democrats try to avoid even mentioning race or gender outside of "treat people respectfully", they are known as the party of "identity politics" solely because Republicans have spent the last two campaign cycles selling their opposition as the identity politics party.

        > 2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance and embrace the 2nd Amendment as being just as important as every other part of the Bill of Rights.

        Agreed. But I would reframe it as becoming the party of "gun safety" and "safe gun ownership". Respect the 2A and acknowledge there's no way to stop proliferation without punishing the people who actually need guns and reframe the conversation around education, risk mitigation, and safety.

      • AnimalMuppet 3 months ago
        7. Actually care about the working class. They're your core constituency, after all. Stop thinking of them as "a basket of deplorables". Instead, listen to them. Find out what they care about, what they want, what they value, and the represent that.
        • krapp 3 months ago
          Are we still on the "basket of deplorables" thing?

          You know that comment wasn't about the working class as a whole, it was about the bigots and neo-nazis that were taking over the Trumpist movement. And she was absolutely correct about it. Instead of uniting over a common manufactured trauma response because the scary lady said a mean thing the right should have cleaned its own house.

          >Instead, listen to them. Find out what they care about, what they want, what they value, and the represent that.

          So... become Republicans then?

          Because they do, you know. The Democrats do all of that, but no one cares. No one even bothers to listen.

          This is literally the only advice anyone ever seems to have. The left should abandon its principles, surrender to its enemies and give them everything they want, and then maybe apologize for the inconvenience.

          The condescension is getting tiring, just send us to the camps already.

          • AnimalMuppet 3 months ago
            If "basket of deplorables" was a one-off, I might agree with you. But "clinging to guns and religion". There was another such comment this cycle, too, though I don't remember it. There has been a thread of contempt for the working class from Obama through Harris, and it keeps coming out of peoples' mouths.

            If you claim to represent the working class, and your positions don't resonate with the working class, then you probably aren't representing them very well. If you claim to represent them but you hold most of them in contempt, then you almost certainly aren't going to represent them well.

            You say they're all Republicans? Find out why. Find out why the Republicans are able to talk to those people - who are supposed to be your people - better than you can. Then figure out how to talk to them better than the Republicans can (hopefully with more truth and less nonsense).

            I'm not asking you to let go of your principles. I'm asking you to live them. Your principles include caring about the working class, the lower class. Go live that out. Go be who you claim to be, who you've always supposed to have been.

            If you think that's condescension, then I don't know what to tell you.

        • legitster 3 months ago
          > 2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance

          They did drop the anti-gun stance and nobody cared or believed them. Kamala was on stage during the debate telling the crowd that she and her running mate were both proud gun owners. Meanwhile Trump is fairly anti-gun.

          This kind of illustrates the problem. Even if their party radically changes its stance on key issues, everyone is so locked into an ideological bubble that nobody bothers to update their perceptions.

          • ThrowawayR2 3 months ago
            Voters have no reason to believe their embrace of firearms ownership was sincere. The Democrats have been consistently attempting to introduce more restrictive gun regulations for decades. Maybe if the Democrats added an official party plank pledging not to introduce any more firearms legislation and worked with Republicans to repeal some of the more stupid ones introduced by Democrats, it might be believable.
            • toomuchtodo 3 months ago
              The only way to win when facts don't matter is to lie to the electorate and appeal to their emotions. And why not? What recourse will they have once you're elected?
              • mindcrime 3 months ago
                They did drop the anti-gun stance and nobody cared or believed them. Kamala was on stage during the debate telling the crowd that she and her running mate were both proud gun owners. Meanwhile Trump is fairly anti-gun.

                You can't expect people's mindsets to change overnight though. Organizations develop a reputation of years, decades, or longer. It might take just as long to change that reputation. It takes consistency over time, not just one or two people getting on stage once and saying "I'm a gun owner."

                • legitster 3 months ago
                  This is true. But then again Trump was a staunch democrat who lived in a penthouse his whole life. Yet is able to just flip a switch on any topic and a whole voter base eats it up. So it's really hard to know what grounds to criticize them on when the opposition has just pure chaos magic on their side.
              • 3 months ago
                • alabastervlog 3 months ago
                  > 2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance and embrace the 2nd Amendment as being just as important as every other part of the Bill of Rights.

                  I agree, but also they mostly do and Republican voters still come out to the voting booth because they're sure—seriously, this is a real thing—that Biden's going to take their guns, and they mean literally, ban guns and try to round them all up.

                  > 6. Go more in the direction of the Blue Dog[1] Democrats in general.

                  Here, I cannot follow you. They need to go far more left-populist on the economy and taxation. They're badly out of sync with their own voters on that, in much the same way Republicans were before Trump came along and started campaigning on the exact same messages you'd hear talking to actual Republican voters in diners ("Why don't they just build a wall?", "NAFTA is unfair and we trade too much with China", "the whole world's taking advantage of us", et c.)

                  • AnimalMuppet 3 months ago
                    I don't think the average voter is in favor of more taxation. The average voter is afraid that "tax the rich" will turn into taxing me.
                    • alabastervlog 3 months ago
                      I think there's more stomach for it than you do, but do agree some large subset of the population thinks that e.g. they ought to oppose the so-called "death tax" because it'll apply to them or anyone they know (it won't).

                      There's also the issue of a large proportion of the population not even understanding how progressive income tax rates work.

                      • disgruntledphd2 3 months ago
                        Well to be fair, the Democrat's contortions on the SALT deductions certainly didn't help them (but if the only people you talk to are affluent coastal liberals then I could see why you'd support such a regressive policy).
                    • jampekka 3 months ago
                      > 2. Drop the radical anti-gun stance

                      The Democrats have a radical pro-gun stance compared to about any other country in the world.

                      • mindcrime 3 months ago
                        Be that as it may, when it comes to winning elections in the United States, comparisons to the Rest of the World aren't carrying much weight.
                      • 3 months ago
                      • watwut 3 months ago
                        I mean, Trump won twice. Down to earth nor ethical nor intelligent is NOT what wins the elections. And the primary focus on identity politics came from the right.

                        Also, gun control seems to be actually popular with Americans on average.

                      • ThrowawayR2 3 months ago
                        Archive link: https://archive.is/HE1fw
                        • chrsw 3 months ago
                          > Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything

                          Similar to Russia and China

                          • techpineapple 3 months ago
                            I think there's a weird counter to this that people are in denial about the Democrats denial. Democrats have always been unpopular. Americans are conservative. I think people voted for Trump because Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything, and Americans won't be convinced as easily to vote for Democrats. Trump will probably screw a bunch of stuff, and maybe Democrats run someone in 2028 that can recapture some of his constituency. That sure, they should and will make changes but the sad truth is the electorate will reward them for none of that, and that the electorate has taught Democrats that sad but real truth to just ride out Trump's failures, and hope to get lucky in the future.

                            But I think this is true on both sides. I think Republicans are in denial that the wave they're on will survive the end of Trump. I think everyone underestimates Trump, the left, the right. Everyone seems to keep looking at Trump's numbers and for some reason coming to the conclusion that Republicans are popular outside of Trump, I remember talking to all sorts of people that said Nikki Haley would be the Republican nominee, because she was smart and good, and Trump would open his mouth and screw thing sup. For some reason, people seem to think that Republicans will do _better_ without Trump, and that's just as delusional as everything else. I

                            • almosthere 3 months ago
                              I disagree with this:

                              > I think people voted for Trump because Trump was able to convince them that Politics is easy, that strong men can fix everything, and Americans won't be convinced as easily to vote for Democrats.

                              If it wasn't Kamala or Biden, the Democrats may have won. But only if:

                              * They rejected the trans ideology (at least to the extent that they play in womens sports / be in women's locker rooms).

                              * get tough on crime

                              * get tough on immigration without some fake border bill

                              * get tough on drugs

                              * stay strong on environment

                              They would have won so easily.

                              • techpineapple 3 months ago
                                I don't think so. I understand what you're trying to say, and I don't think I disagree with the essence of what you're trying to say, but... Why vote for a Democrat to do those things, when overwhelmingly people think Republicans are better on those things? I don't think anyone would have bought it, I don't think the senate or house would support it, and if you wanted people to think Democrats were good on those things, it would take decades of changing to make people think you actually were.
                                • almosthere 3 months ago
                                  Because people would have rather had those fixes and stayed with their party and not had the explosive figure of DT.

                                  The democrats were SO BAD that many people couldn't stand the extreme leftists policies that even DT was worth voting for.

                                  If they had gone more moderate, ditched both Biden and Kamala, we would have a president Newsom right now. Also, as it turns out, Newsom's teen son is a huge Charlie Kirk fan - which has been influencing Newsom.

                              • jampekka 3 months ago
                                Trump is unpopular. He's never gotten majority approval in a Gallup poll for example.

                                https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job...

                                • techpineapple 3 months ago
                                  He is, and I get this, but I think there's something wrong with the data, something like, MAGA is popular, and even though he's an imperfect steward of MAGA, he's the only valid steward of MAGA. Or, he's unpopular, but he's unpopular with people who will always vote Republican, and popular with people who will only vote Trump, pushing Republican's over the top.

                                  But how do you explain Trump being unpopular, and like sports stars doing the Trump dance?

                                  https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/sport/trump-dance-sports-spt-...

                                  Or how do you explain that Republicans underperform when Trump is not on the ballot? Or how do you explain that Trump absolutely annihilated his competition in the primary! This feels like a perfect example of Bezos' "When the data and the anecdotes disagree, believe the anecdotes"

                                  Trump won the only poll that matters. Destroyed by most metrics. Who cares what the polls say about him being unpopular?

                                  • jampekka 3 months ago
                                    MAGA is not popular. Only about 50% of republicans are MAGA and about 30% of the population are republicans. Being generous, MAGA has something like 20% support.

                                    Trump's win was hardly a destruction. It was quite slim.