https://catnmsplan.com/sites/default/files/2025-04/04.01.25-...

Also, CAT is run by CATNMS, LLC which was created in response to an SEC rule 613, however it is operated by the same consortium of SROs that it purports to provide oversight on...

All these layers of responsibility diffusion and a notable absence of penalties for failing to meet rule 613 guidelines mean that rule is little more than for show.

We're witnessing the removal of all of the guardrails, traffic signals, road maintenance crews. The highway patrols have been replaced by organized teams of highwaymen.

It'll get a lot worse before it gets better.

He literally bragged that his friend made 2.5 billion and the other 900 million that day.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/1jvyryz/tru...

"Rules for thee not for me."

I think the post established that this volume or size of spike is unique before any market-shifting news event coming out of the government in recent decades. The "sort" of transaction is irrelevant except that it's risky and thus relatively low volume normally.

A lot more details needed: - Is it a fund or individual? - Does the trader make these kind of trades regularly?

I have more questions, but those are the first questions I would start with. I trade 0 and 1 days quite a bit in SPY and have collected a lot of data and performed statistical analysis on them for several years now. I myself sold S&P futures options that morning based off my data.

My theory until proven otherwise - Trader makes smaller trades in 0 days regularly - market volatility and the state of that week gave a much higher probability that there would be an extreme reversal at the first sign of any hint of good news, which was proven by fake news of a tariff lift just a day or two before. The overall bearish sentiment also coiled the market for an extreme move to the upside. Adding even more probability, the market that day was at the same level from Monday, where it showed buyers were foaming at the mouth to buy. Trump tweets just after market open that it was a great time to buy. Probability increases even more...

Similar to a very high probability count in Blackjack, trader puts in a trade at 12 and has an exit plan for 1 or two hours later. Trader determines that worst case 50 to 75% of the trade is lost due to theta decay by 2pm. Maybe they have a stop at 40%? Best case 2 to 10x's their money due to support levels giving a small rally. They've done this before and the wins outweigh the losses. Maybe even a hedge fund or algo trader running an ML model.

In my data I've seen extremely large multi-million dollar call option plays regularly when there is market volatility like this. Until proven otherwise, everyone just needs to stop with the outrage. I'm completely willing to change my mind as more evidence comes out.

Surely it will only take a few more rounds of pump and dumping the entire US economy for basically every country to label the US the same, and move away from US bonds and the US dollar as reserve currency. It just won’t be stable enough with all these antics.

When it happens I just hope trump won’t use it as justification for war.

It's treason what they did, treason on their principles. All this in times when it was supposedly "Main Street" turn.

https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1910000578198986822

The only people that can save it are regular people standing up and taking action.

  "The French researcher in question was in possession of confidential information on his electronic device from Los Alamos National Laboratory— in violation of a non-disclosure agreement—something he admitted to taking without permission and attempted to conceal.

  Any claim that his removal was based on political beliefs is blatantly false."

- held for an indefinite time without due process and information what you did wrong

- stripped naked and spilled with cold water

- potentially worse, but that depends entirely on the way things are developing on a day-by-day basis

And if someone thinks that won't happen to them because they come from a western country and have a low eumelanin pigmentation level, recent examples show that this does not matter¹. Remember ICE also appears to want to police "illegal ideas" at the border now².

These arbitrary arrests, a disregard for the Rule of Law and the valuation of loyalty to the cause over predictable consequences fit the despotic style that is encouraged in the US from the top down lately. The world would be wise not continue betting all their cards on a crazy horse.

¹: Germany, Feb 2025 – Tourist held 16 days at border, deported without clear reason. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-immigration-detaining-europe... UK, Mar 2025 – Backpacker held 3 weeks at Canada border, no charges. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/22/tourism-trum... Germany, Mar 2025 – Visitor held 45 days under Visa Waiver, unclear why. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-detention-of-european... Canada, Mar 2025 – Woman with valid visa held 12 days at border. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-immigration-detaining-europe... UK, Mar 2025 – Punk band denied entry, detained at LAX. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/22/tourism-trum... Germany, Mar 2025 – Green card holder detained at Boston airport. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/22/tourism-trum... Multiple, Mar 2025 – ICE arrested 48 in NM; cause/details unclear. https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-mystery-of-ices-...

²: ICE posted a very "unfortunate" marketing picture recently: https://www.newsweek.com/ice-illegal-ideas-border-security-s...

If the price had stayed flat or dropped, they would of course still have the $2.5M.

The precision makes it look a lot like a crime, as trading on information that's not publicly available is illegal.

Whoever shorted those calls made some money in the contracts, but they were going to lose money anyway the moment of the announcement.

But why not earlier in the day? Why this unique volume spike then? The one $2.5M is just a sample trade, part of a historic spike.

No one's jumping to conclusions, but it should trigger an investigation.

Why? A secretary or janitor or a intern could also be an insider. Or are they No True Scotsmen?

Well, if it was insider trading, Trump and his billionaire friends wouldn't invest just 2.5 million. That's a meager sum for the very wealthy.

Maybe they've even done insider trading but in ways that weren't so obvious.

All these worthless paperless money as you call it are precisely also instruments for companies and individuals to gain some economical stability during uncertain times by buying contracts and shifting the risk to someone else that has either more financial means or has worked to have a better view of future conditions.

So as an example, your medical insurer and your car insurer know pretty well the odds of you needing either medical treatment or suffering some type of car accident. And because they also have the financial means to risk being wrong, they offer you an insurance, because in the aggregated number they are usually right in their predictions.

Do you actually have an answer to that? Or are you just throwing out an unanswerable question as some form of “gotcha”?

Now I’m actually curious. There aren’t _that_ many publicly traded companies; only about 4,000 according to Google. A little over 9,000 IPOs since 1980 [0]. The number of companies where the CEO being “out of commission” on such a short timescale would generate “rich” (to me, in this scenario, >$5 million) levels of ROI has to be pretty low up. Probably not even most of the Fortune 100. Then the number of doctors who have that info and are going to act on it is a smaller fraction. Then the three have to match (command that fits + ill CEO + trading physician). Do you think it’s over 10? 25?

0. https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPO-Statistics....

Due to insider trading rules being problematic, sometimes more headache than benefit, the UK FCA is now allowing new stock market to launch where insider trading is legal.

Much of it is data analysis. My favorite examples of this are actual hacks - once foothold is established instead of encrypting & ransoming, the attacker just listens to the CEO/CFO. One hacked a law firm that handled some sizable mergers.

Personal tangent: Once had an opportunity to insider trade on a particular huge aerospace company. Playing a squad-based PvE game, matchmade into a team with 3 real-life friends at said company who chatted on in-game voice comms about their day, talking about court cases and senate hearings, and later panicked when they realized I could hear it all. They were nice guys, and I assured them that I wouldn't misuse what I overheard - I don't work in a relevant industry, and my investments do just fine without an illegal edge (plus I know Matt Levine's Laws of Insider Trading #1: Don't).

+There are some non-gambling reasons for stock options trading, akin to commodities options being used to reduce risks in farming.

And looking at the options flow, it was billions across all the unusual 0DTE trades.

The option to buy at 2.5m was not an obligation to do so

The volumes are there for all to see and the answer is no.

Why would someone hedge with 0DTE options as opposed to normal options?

I’m no longer in that space, but I’d assume the OOTM strikes are less liquid than normal options, with higher theta as well. That looks like a very expensive hedge.

What kind of position would be hedged with these options that couldn’t be hedged with normal options?

I'm curious if you could evaluate an AI response from Perplexity. I asked it to analyze your comment (https://www.perplexity.ai/search/summarize-https-govinfo-lib...) and would value your expert assessment of its accuracy and quality. Perhaps a grade score with brief comments on what stood out?

I feel current AI benchmarks don't capture the data to really gauge how reliable AI tools are for topics requiring some advanced/expert domain knowledge of. Your role is, "expert in the middle" to provide commentary on what it gets right or wrong. Everything sounds right and looks right when I don't know what is what ya know?

Unfortunately half the comments I read on here are becoming increasingly more reddit-esque. Users posting emotionally charged comments and speaking with an authoritative voice on topics they have little experience or knowledge in an accordingly Hacker News has become more and more useless as a news source.

Anyone who held equities that day were up 6-7%, so many billionaires were up that much or more without touching their holdings.

He told everyone what he was going to do. A lot of people thought he was a lying politician who lies, and therefore these were all lies. Or, at best, jokes or exaggerations.

And now, 4 months into a 4 year term, he's doing it all. Who knew?

So when he jokes that he can do whatever he wants, including run for a third term, learn from the past: it isn't a joke, even if he's chuckling; it isn't an exaggeration; it's not a lie. It's real, it's the plan. Decide how you feel about it.

I'm not criticising anyone or anything here, I'm just stating facts. It's sad to me that so many people think this is all coming as some sort of huge surprise.

Had to look it up, thanks!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_tan_suit_contro...

We don't even know who made these trades.

If we look at actual trades by politicians who actually sit on committees with tradable information, we know the biggest culprits are on both sides of the aisle.

https://newrepublic.com/post/177806/members-congress-made-st...

And if you look at the trades, you’ll learn the biggest secret on Wall Street: make long term bets on tech and you’ll get richer. Don’t tell anyone I told you.

Here we have people defending politicians from benefiting from insider information and attempting to split hairs in what is the difference between Pelosi and Trump.

There isn't any.

There is no difference in them knowing something ahead of you and they may have already traded that ahead of the event. (and you copying it very late when the move has already happened).

They benefit, you do not.

There is also the Machiavellian consideration of external threats. We need these corporations to make the tools of Ahriman. Without them, another country's corporations will make them first, and use them to subjugate us. People who believe in God (not just the Abrahamic one, but any good creator) prefer not to play this game, but most people are strict materialists, so they are locked into this equation.