The Illusions of Barbell Theory

8 points by jger15 1 week ago | 1 comment
  • treetalker 1 week ago
    This person understands neither Taleb's writing (name-dropper) nor the barbell writ large.

    In particular, their concept of "the middle" is off-base (as is their concept of the edges/extremes). A local bookstore or local watering hole belongs not in the middle but on the Mediocristan side, along with roadside dives, etc. — indeed, there is little in the way of risk here, and returns appear linear (if we're talking about consumer satisfaction, which is how I read the writing — and places that receive regular/standard sanitation checks).

    The middle is precisely where life-operators want to be, balanced between large amounts of Mediocristan and small amounts of Extremistan: the Mediocristan side of the barbell is weighted heavily with low- or no-risk but low and linear returns (for robustness / avoidance of ruin) while the Extremistan side has possibly complete loss risk but possibly exponential or theoretically unlimited upside (for beneficial exposure).

    Perhaps from, say, a publisher's perspective, there is no middle anymore (in the sense that most books will be near worthless but a select few will shoot the moon). But not so from the consumer's perspective: there is still a rather normal gradient of quality, from utter garbage to the Great Books, trash fast food to 3-Star Michelin-ranked restaurants, and everything in between.