Coffee in Crisis

49 points by thomersch_ 9 years ago | 48 comments
  • kokey 9 years ago
    It's strange that an article about the potential scarcity of Arabica doesn't once mention the country where most Arabica is grown: Brazil. Not only that, the expectations have been improving because of improved conditions this year: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/coffee-dec...
    • DarkTree 9 years ago
      It does seem like the article may have conveniently evaded that news. However, that doesn't mean there isn't a looming threat to the coffee supply.

      The fact that Brazil may have an exceptionally good year, only means that it is likely to have a less-exceptional year after that, due to regression to the mean. If the climate does start to negatively impact the more tertiary coffee growing regions, Brazil will not be able to bolster the entire coffee demand.

      Also: I can only assume that growing overall population = higher demand for coffee

      • yellowapple 9 years ago
        > The fact that Brazil may have an exceptionally good year, only means that it is likely to have a less-exceptional year after that, due to regression to the mean.

        Isn't that a Monte Carlo fallacy? One outcome in a sequence of tests does not mean that others are more likely in the future. If you flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, your likelihood of getting a tails on the next flip (assuming a perfectly-balanced coin) is still 50%. Brazil's good year may be another case of climate change for all we know, and could very well persist for awhile; or, you might be right and next year things will balance out again. We don't know either way yet.

        That isn't to say that we shouldn't be concerned regardless; you're correct in your observation that having all our figurative, coffee-flavored eggs in one basket - even if that basket is the size of Brazil - is rarely a good idea.

        • DarkTree 9 years ago
          Yeah, you're right, we certainly won't know until hindsight shows up.

          > "One outcome in a sequence of tests does not mean that others are more likely in the future. If you flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, your likelihood of getting a tails on the next flip (assuming a perfectly-balanced coin) is still 50%"

          True, but I am arguing that out of 10 flips, the average number of heads will likely be 50%. If you got 10 heads in a row, that would be 100%, an exceptional event, possibly like Brazil's good year. However, if you were to flip 10 more coins, it is much more likely that you will get less than 100% heads flips, as it will regress closer to the mean of 50%.

          I guess the main point I was arguing is that just because Brazil might have a good outlook in the future, does not mean the article is invalid and too presumptuous.

          • debacle 9 years ago
            > If you flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, your likelihood of getting a tails on the next flip (assuming a perfectly-balanced coin) is still 50%.

            If you flip a FAIR coin, your odds are still 50%. If I flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row, I'm betting heads for that 11th flip.

      • autotune 9 years ago
        Is it not possible to grow coffee plants using vertical farming? It sound ideas like this => http://cargocollective.com/dellabosca/Vertical-Coffee-Farm are going to need to become a reality in the future if we can't stop climate change, where it can protect the plants from heavy rainfalls and allow farmers to control their growth.
        • primroot 9 years ago
          Coffee has been traditionally grown within a forest containing both native flora as well as other productive species (cacao, banana, vanilla, etc.) that grow well under taller trees. So in a sense coffee _requires_ vertical farming, except that the vertical space is only occupied by coffee plants at one place. John Vandermeer of U. of Michigan has been studying coffee cultivation as a primary example of food forest, and has been pointing out the negative effects of full sun (and yes, full rain) intensive coffee cultivation on the resilience of the production system. I am surprised that the article does not mention these aspects of coffee.
          • alceufc 9 years ago
            A challenge would be that coffee trees have very deep roots [1].

            [1] http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/ad219e/AD219E05.htm

            • yellowapple 9 years ago
              So we build deeper farm levels.

              Even more conventional greenhouses, however, should help somewhat. I reckon the point of the parent commenter is less about the vertical nature of such farms and more about the climate controllability of such farms.

          • anthony_romeo 9 years ago
            At the same time, demand for coffee is growing rapidly, especially since more traditionally tea-drinking nations are making the switch to coffee.[1] Maybe if coffee prices increase significantly we'll see more milk-tea places opening up and Starbucks incorporating more of its Teavana products at its stores.

            [1] http://time.com/3711436/global-coffee-increase/

            • a3n 9 years ago
              This page made my laptop scream. It never stopped trying to load something. I run ABP, perhaps that's the "fault?"

              I also tried to find a sensible place to point that out to the BBC, but nothing was obviously (to me) the right place.

              • teh_klev 9 years ago
                Forget trying to report technical faults to the BBC, every road leads to obfuscation, misdirection and frustration. They don't provide support for anything or anyone. This includes TV License payers. They even discontinued what little real time interaction they had with viewers when they abandoned the iPlayer forums a few years back.

                Even if you do manage to report "something", it takes them weeks to respond, if at all.

                I rarely consume BBC products and services these days, and after the Scottish Independence referendum I no longer trust them as a competent news source. They're a bit of a running joke to many folks in Scotland, especially news and affairs output from Pacific Quay (BBC Scotland) [0][1].

                0: http://www.bbc.scotlandshire.co.uk/

                1: http://newsnet.scot/citizen/

                • Retra 9 years ago
                  You could try using Ghostery (https://www.ghostery.com/en/.) For me the page loads slower than most, but not problematically so.
                  • cpncrunch 9 years ago
                    Seems to work fine on my MBP. I'm just annoyed by the dumb parallax scrolling which covers up the title when you're trying to read it. Parallax was cool on Amigas in the 80s, but today in web pages it's just flashy and annoying.
                  • ghostly_s 9 years ago
                    No issues here in Firefox. I even disabled uBlock Origin and didn't notice any issue. Not about to allow flash, though...
                    • serve_yay 9 years ago
                      I wish every HN link had a separate comments section where people bitch about the page the news was served on.
                      • ashmud 9 years ago
                        Without JS enabled on FF39, it looks like a nice WAP-era mobile page.
                        • recursive 9 years ago
                          I'm not running any ad blocking, and had a similar experience.
                          • 9 years ago
                          • VeejayRampay 9 years ago
                            Isn't there a way to produce synthetic caffeine?

                            I mean, there's been a shift recently for nicotine and the market for e-cigs, I'm sure we can somehow find a way to do the same for caffeine.

                            • Nacraile 9 years ago
                              You know, some people drink coffee because they like the flavour, not because they need caffeine :P (As a matter of fact, I consider caffeine to be an undesirable side-effect of delicious coffee...)

                              Coffee isn't the only natural source of caffeine, and yes, it can also be made synthetically.

                              • sritch 9 years ago
                                It's especially unfortunate because decaf coffee is usually gross.
                                • nightski 9 years ago
                                  I've found decaf made with the Aeropress is actually surprisingly good. I usually only have a single cup of caffeinated and then follow up with a few cups of decaf.
                                  • noir_lord 9 years ago
                                    Unsurprising when you look at the method they use for removing the caffeine.
                                  • golergka 9 years ago
                                    And a lot of people love coffee but hate caffeine.
                                    • stdbrouw 9 years ago
                                      And some people, mysteriously, seem to be especially fond of the flavor just around the time they're struggling to wake up.
                                      • primroot 9 years ago
                                        Try roasted okra seeds then.
                                      • unprepare 9 years ago
                                        Are we producing synthetic nicotine for e-cigs?

                                        I am of the understanding that we currently produce liquid nicotine from tobacco leaves, and use the liquid nicotine for electronic cigarettes.

                                        We certainly can already produce caffeine independently of producing coffee, and while that may be a major reason for coffee production, i doubt many coffee drinkers would be satiated with a caffeine pill every morning instead of their cup of coffee.

                                        Kind of akin to seeing the wine grapes are going away and saying, well we can produce alcohol independently of wine - its true, but it wont satisfy wine lovers.

                                        • mattlutze 9 years ago
                                          If we were to replace coffee beans, we wouldn't just offer them a No-Doze; I imagine you develop coffee flavors that could be used to reproduce the actual beverage. No reason for instant coffee to ever have been coffee beans in the first place if you can do the flavors right.

                                          Or, the culture just adjusts to a different caffeine-infused hot drink.

                                        • TranquilMarmot 9 years ago
                                          Nicotine patch? I want a caffeine patch!

                                          Honestly though, I'd be less upset about coffee going away as a source of caffeine than it going away as a drink. It's so wonderfully delicious that synthetic caffeine just wouldn't really cut it for me.

                                        • strictnein 9 years ago
                                          To answer your question: yes, we already create synthetic caffeine. It's widely used in soda, energy drinks, etc.
                                          • freels 9 years ago
                                            From what I understand, a lot of this caffeine is sold to soda makers as a byproduct of the decaffeination process used on coffee beans.

                                            Does this mean the end of soda as well?

                                            • strictnein 9 years ago
                                              > "But most of the caffeine used in soft drinks is actually synthetically produced in Chinese pharmaceutical plants."

                                              http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2014/03/13/289750754/wak...

                                              • DanBC 9 years ago
                                                I'd love a good cola that has no caffiene. (Although I also don't want it to have sugar either.)

                                                There's a niche in the market for somethig that tastes nice, is cold, isn't full of sugar and is not caffeinated.

                                              • refurb 9 years ago
                                                How do you know the caffeine in soda and energy drinks is synthetic? Why not just use the leftover caffeine from decaffeination of coffee?
                                            • fasteo 9 years ago
                                              Coffee is much more than caffeine [1]

                                              [1] http://www.ift.org/~/media/Knowledge%20Center/Publications/B...

                                              • odiroot 9 years ago
                                                Why would you do that though?

                                                It's a funny thought for me as I only drink decaf.

                                              • TheCoelacanth 9 years ago
                                                > For one thing, we can expect coffee to become more of a luxury, with prices shooting up by around 25% by 2050 according to Bunn’s calculations

                                                A 25% rise in price over 35 years qualifies as a crisis now?

                                                • 9 years ago
                                                  • L8D 9 years ago
                                                    In accordance with Betteridge's Law of Headlines[1] the answer is no.

                                                    [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...

                                                    I don't know how people do links and stuff on hacker news

                                                    • knn 9 years ago
                                                      Thanks for the link, haha. Sensationalist title.